Space: What low expectations we have
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Deltafang
Terrestrial Planet Finder
We do seem to have notoriously low expectations. I don't think the average person understands how expensive space travel really is. They also don't seem to understand that we've just opened the patio doors but haven't stepped out into our own backyard yet. We certainly have a long way to go.
I remember watching Avatar and everyone was cheering when the Valkyrie shuttle was destroyed. I think I was the only person who was shaking my head. I remember leaning over to my little brother and going:
"Expensive...so expensive...what a tremendous waste of money. Do you understand only a handful of those shuttles were made? And for it to just blow up like that...? That's so...expensive."
He also shook his head, but I doubt it was about the movie.
Hopefully, developing MW fusion technologies and VASIMR and its cousins will make most of our dreams a reality. I wonder what the maximum exhaust velocity on a throttleable engine in the next 200 years will be? Perhaps most space travel will be contracted under commercial companies then. It could be a very bright future!
I remember watching Avatar and everyone was cheering when the Valkyrie shuttle was destroyed. I think I was the only person who was shaking my head. I remember leaning over to my little brother and going:
"Expensive...so expensive...what a tremendous waste of money. Do you understand only a handful of those shuttles were made? And for it to just blow up like that...? That's so...expensive."
He also shook his head, but I doubt it was about the movie.
Hopefully, developing MW fusion technologies and VASIMR and its cousins will make most of our dreams a reality. I wonder what the maximum exhaust velocity on a throttleable engine in the next 200 years will be? Perhaps most space travel will be contracted under commercial companies then. It could be a very bright future!
Ghostrider
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And the lesson is: don't bring an expensive shuttle of which only a handful have been made smack into the middle of pissed-off bluecatpeople land.
anemazoso
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Even if you look at the recent past we have continued to lower our expectations. I think one of the biggest disapontments for me is the total scraping of the VentureStar concept. Ya, so the composite tanks failed, the linear aerospike motor still worked!!! Why couldn't they just re-design around alum-lith alloy tanks?
I agree that we should just stop throwing good money after bad and conduct a crash program to achieve cheap, reusable SSTO. I would submit the following:
-First stage fly-back booster with anular aerospike motor. The key is VTOHL.
-Said booster could be configured for both manned and un-manned launches.
- Manned capsule to fit on top of fly-back and put into LEO, trips to moon or elsware should be propelled by in-space reusable tugs.
-Crash program to develop and mature bucky carbon and arafical diamond to advance materials tech.
Unfortunatly none of this would happen because the portion of the public that DOES care about spaceflight want only quick and easy results. We need to think in longer time scales as a society but I realise this is very wishfull thinking... and that does make me sad.
:beathead:
I agree that we should just stop throwing good money after bad and conduct a crash program to achieve cheap, reusable SSTO. I would submit the following:
-First stage fly-back booster with anular aerospike motor. The key is VTOHL.
-Said booster could be configured for both manned and un-manned launches.
- Manned capsule to fit on top of fly-back and put into LEO, trips to moon or elsware should be propelled by in-space reusable tugs.
-Crash program to develop and mature bucky carbon and arafical diamond to advance materials tech.
Unfortunatly none of this would happen because the portion of the public that DOES care about spaceflight want only quick and easy results. We need to think in longer time scales as a society but I realise this is very wishfull thinking... and that does make me sad.
:beathead:
Blacklight
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It's all about the money. Too many people saying "How can this make money for me NOW." and not at all worried about the stunting of space technology. Heck ! Your average joe doesn't give a rat's ass about space or space technology. By the 1970, hardly ANYONE was paying attention to the moon landings ! How many average people actually pay attention to shuttle launches or space probe discoveries nowadays ? I've actually known people who didn't realize that we've REALLY been to the moon before I told them about it !!!!
Add to that, the constant bickering from people who claim that a manned space flight program is a waste of money when everything can be done with cheaper unmanned missions and how the ISS is just a big money vacuum that no one wants to pay for.
Add to that, the constant bickering from people who claim that a manned space flight program is a waste of money when everything can be done with cheaper unmanned missions and how the ISS is just a big money vacuum that no one wants to pay for.
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anemazoso
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I think we need a good balance of both though. I would love to see some unmanned probes of Europa, Titan an Enceladus. Not to mention a sample return of MARS!
My suggestion is to develop a sustainable vehicle that can deliver payloads of at least 1000 kg to LEO. THe minimum possible spacecraft (consisting of space-suit, jetpack, and reentry cup) is less massive than that. Also, such a vehicle would probably be a pressurized shuttle.
The earth is hit by asteroids large enough to be like small nukes every few years. Most don't hit anything important but soon they will. DEFEND AMERICA AGAINST THE ASTEROID MENACE! REMEMBER EROS!
Maybe we could get something out of the national security paranoia.
The earth is hit by asteroids large enough to be like small nukes every few years. Most don't hit anything important but soon they will. DEFEND AMERICA AGAINST THE ASTEROID MENACE! REMEMBER EROS!
Maybe we could get something out of the national security paranoia.
According to Entering Space by Zubrin, pg 131, we get a 16 kt (4 m diameter) every year (but most of them hit the ocean or the desert) 120 kt every 10 yr, and 20 megaton every 400 years. Gulag prisoners and/or guards in Stalinist Russia probably killed by feb 1947 Vladivostok 128 kt impact.
Sometimes I have wondered if the failure of the government could be solved by making two entities: a highly profitable corporation, making anything whatsoever that makes money, giving all of it to a private space agency, and a private space agency using said money with the same ability to do the right thing as NASA but with ambition intact.
Also, I think we really need to consider Orion and NTR technology. For the size of things we could launch... and the posibility of lofting an Orion or using pure fusion bomblets.
Imagine the scientific progress if space lift was decreased to 1 dollar a kilogram. Even with no other advancements.
Sometimes I have wondered if the failure of the government could be solved by making two entities: a highly profitable corporation, making anything whatsoever that makes money, giving all of it to a private space agency, and a private space agency using said money with the same ability to do the right thing as NASA but with ambition intact.
Also, I think we really need to consider Orion and NTR technology. For the size of things we could launch... and the posibility of lofting an Orion or using pure fusion bomblets.
Imagine the scientific progress if space lift was decreased to 1 dollar a kilogram. Even with no other advancements.
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jedidia
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I'm afraid any private agency that gets its money "for free" is worse than a gouvernament-agency. the ambition will turn from "conquering the stars" to "getting more money in our pockets" in a decade at best.
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
The system doesn't even work very well for humanitairian NGOs anymore, and they had very noble goals to start with (hell, we have thriving corruption inside humanitairian organisations nowadays), AND they have standards... but you can't assure the standards are kept when a system gets too complex.
The rule is: Wherever there is money, ambition will vanish. Because as soon as there is money to be made, you get the wrong people in the board. For a progressing space programm I think we'd need competition. As soon as one agency/corporation/whatever has a monopoly developement will stagnate in favour of money and politics. Only if an agency is threatened by being replacable they realy work on what they're supposed to be working on.
Of course competing agencies will do lots of double work and together will need more money than it would take if they cooperated, but it would still be more efficient than allowing a monopoly that will in time time get drowned in burocracy devoted to keeping the men in charge in charge.
Urwumpe
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How many manned spaceflight projects in the past did not follow these phases?
- Unbounded enthusiasm
- Total disillusionment
- PANIC!!
- Frantic search for the guilty
- Punishment of the innocent
- Promotion of the uninvolved
SiberianTiger
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Couldn't find any mentioning of possible victims of Sikhote-Alin' meteorite impact in either language. Would you share your source?
Urwumpe
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Also can't find any confirmation or even correlation between approximate ground track and Gulag positions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikhote-Alin_Meteorite
http://maps.google.com/maps?t=h&q=4...6.149394,134.67041&spn=9.726584,15.952148&z=6
http://www.memo.ru/history/NKVD/GULAG/maps/ussri.htm
http://www.memo.ru/history/NKVD/GULAG/maps/rus13.htm
The closest Gulag to the impact site is still about hundred km away and didn't even exist in 1947 - it was formed in 1952.
Urwumpe
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No, but spaceflight technology does also not advance instantly when you cry wolf. You need to methodically push against the impossible, so more becomes possible. More money is always nice, but never forget the most important rule in engineering: Politicians are people who think that with nine women, they can have a baby every month.
More money does not automatically bring faster advancements. But it helps.
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