Still, such a discovery would tip the scales from a perfect "we don't know" to the side of "we're screwed", no matter what probability you assign to any of the links in the causality chain. Yes, with the probabilities you're assigning to them, it's not something to worry about. However, your estimates strike me as far removed from the current consensus in cosmology and xenobiology. There's nothing mythical about the Great Filter.
Everything about the Great Filter is mythical. The concepts behind it may have credence individually, but the way the whole concept is treated it definitely deserves such an epithet.
I don't know what "current consensus in cosmology and xenobiology" you're talking about; cosmology does not deal with the evolution of organisms, and whether xenobiology can be classifiable as a real science (as opposed to something that solely exists in speculative fiction) is debatable. The study of potential alien life is more popularly termed astrobiology, and currently limited to hypothetical study of extraterrestrial abiogenesis, the existence of life-bearing environments off of Earth, and potential alternate biochemistries.
To understand how organisms
evolve, how they evolve beyond the first biotic phenomena and eventually evolve into things like us is more in the field of evolutionary biology. Phenomena predominantly under the domain of other fields of science can affect things greatly, but on their own said scientific fields are pretty much useless in trying to gain an insight into how life develops.
The general consensus I can understand is that:
- Evolution has no 'end goal', there is no reason for life to be guaranteed to evolve into anything (including sapient life).
- The existence of humans is a pretty improbable event that relied on a wide variety of specific historical and biological factors. There is also no reason for these factors to be guaranteed to be conducive to the emergence of sapient life.
I don't know what your knowledge on the matter is, but everything I have learnt about the history of life on Earth has shown me that it is not magically destined to produce sapient organisms.
As for a "consensus" on what the probability of life developing sapience is, I'm not sure if anything of the sort exists. There are obviously people out there who hold it to be quite high, but also others who hold quite dim views on the probability of sapient life evolving elsewhere (see Rare Earth hypothesis, etc).
The problems with the Great Filter don't end with evolutionary biology. It totally relies on the Fermi Paradox to which there are many criticisms as well. And it also makes a lot of assumptions (that are also related to evolutionary biology) on things like how a sapient organism would develop- for example, who is to say that humans are not simply very novel in that their physiology and/or environment to not be restricted to a subsistence lifestyle as many other sapient organisms could be?
And I agree that it would shift things closer to the "we're screwed" side, but one of the things that highly annoys me about the Great Filter is it's taken as some sort of magical destiny that sets our fate, without regard to any actual actions, choices or situation-specific advantages or disadvantages we have or make.
We must hope we don't discover alien life, because if we do, we're doomed. So much for free will. :uhh:
You make it seem like your views towards life in general are much more ambivalent than would be healthy.
Most people on this forum hardly know what my views towards life in general actually
are, so it would be very funny for you to say that. :lol: