Science 5oth anniversary of the Moore’s Law

Soheil_Esy

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Sunday, April 19, will mark the 5oth anniversary of a phenomenon that has transformed industry and society more than any other in modern times: Moore’s Law.

On that date in 1965, Fairchild Semiconductor and later Intel cofounder Gordon Moore published an article in Electronics magazine that observed that the number of transistors on silicon chips had doubled each year for the previous decade. He also predicted that trend would continue for another decade.

The simplified version of this law states that processor speeds, or overall processing power for computers will double every two years. A quick check among technicians in different computer companies shows that the term is not very popular but the rule is still accepted.

To break down the law even further, it specifically stated that the number of transistors on an affordable CPU would double every two years (which is essentially the same thing that was stated before) but ‘more transistors’ is more accurate.

If you were to look at processor speeds from the 1970’s to 2009 and then again in 2010, one may think that the law has reached its limit or is nearing the limit. In the 1970’s processor speeds ranged from 740 KHz to 8MHz; notice that the 740 is KHz, which is Kilo Hertz – while the 8 is MHz, which is Mega Hertz.

From 2000 – 2009 there has not really been much of a speed difference as the speeds range from 1.3 GHz to 2.8 GHz, which suggests that the speeds have barely doubled within a 10 year span. This is because we are looking at the speeds and not the number of transistors; in 2000 the number of transistors in the CPU numbered 37.5 million, while in 2009 the number went up to an outstanding 904 million; this is why it is more accurate to apply the law to transistors than to speed.

Gordon Moore, Mar 2015:

Some things will change. We won’t have the rate of progress that we’ve had over the last few decades. I think that’s inevitable with any technology; it eventually saturates out. I guess I see Moore’s Law dying here in the next decade or so, but that’s not surprising.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/gordon-moore-the-man-whose-name-means-progress

http://www.mooreslaw.org/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelkanellos/2015/04/13/moores-law-turns-50-seven-things-to-remember/
 
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