Launch News (FAILURE) Progress M-12M, Soyuz-U, August 24, 2011

[garyw]

Heptil is used by Dpner. I don't think it's an issue here but the RCS uses hypolgolics.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Heptil is a Russian technical slang word for UDMH.

 

[SiberianTiger]

One would hope that these propellants have burnt up/dissipated enough not to cause much harm, but I wouldn't pick any piece of debris up. Similar situation occured after the breakup of Columbia.

There is a fear that some people might be near the crash site. The local emercom declared the district a special operation zone. Search of the crash site will resume in the morning, because tonight is rainy in the mountains and it's too risky to send search teams there now.

 

[GigaG]

This is why NASA must continue the shuttle program. There are still ETs and SRBs, and NASA is retiring the 3 great orbiters. At least, they should retrofit a shuttle to modern standards. Soyuz has been flying since the 1960s, and they are up to Soyuz TMA-M, while NASA has retired the much younger shuttle from service without even considering modifications. Now, we have the R-7 family grounded and China possibly grounded. That means the most likely country to have manned space launch capability is China, which not only can't dock with the ISS, but I'm sure Americans would not want to fly in the Chinese vehicle. With them being our only chance, an ASTP-type docking module would need to be used. If Russia can't get their act together, the ISS will go the way of Skylab and Mir - a flaming death falling to Earth.

 

[Urwumpe]

I heard something of "heptil", some sort of fuel for the ISS, that was in the Progress and is highly poisonous, are there any information on that?

That information is wrong. The NVA used the word Heptyl for describing some chemicals used in old rockets, but that was just a synonym for Nitric Acid there. Neither chemical called Heptyl ever had a heptyl-group in its formulation.

The Progress freighter uses UMDH and N2O4, just like the ISS. The same fuel is also used in proton rockets and was also used in the Ariane 4.

Heptyl means a group of seven carbon atoms, heptane is seven carbon atoms in a row and 100% heptane is the definition of zero octane.

N2O4 has zero carbon molecules, UDMH just two (because it is Dimethyl = two groups of one carbon atom with 3 hydrogen atoms).

 

[Arrowstar]

In the event that a major Soyuz/Progress design flaw is found that requires a significant delay to work out, what is the probability that ESA/JAXA could increase their spacecraft manufacturing output to keep up with demand?

 

[asbjos]

But remember that we still have HTV and ATV, and of course are ISS prepared for those scenarios that we now have seen. It would be silly if they didn't...

 

[Urwumpe]

In the event that a major Soyuz/Progress design flaw is found that requires a significant delay to work out, what is the probability that ESA/JAXA could increase their spacecraft manufacturing output to keep up with demand?

The chance that it is a major design flaw in THESE engines is nearly zero.

The last failure of them is quite a while in the past.

 

[Moach]

why do i all the sudden get this picture popping up in my head?

and more important, how did i ever miss the fact that there was a launch going on today? :facepalm:

 

[Suzy]

Oh, damn, what bad news to wake up to I suppose, statistically, a failure would happen sooner or later, but it's still dismaying - Progress launches have always been so reliable!

 

[Urwumpe]

Just digged through Astronautics: The last failure related to this engine was in 1981.

 

[N_Molson]

Honestly, I thought it was one of the most reliable piece of rocket hardware ever... And maybe it still is, statistically...

 

[T.Neo]

What is the status of ATV-003?

How long can the current crew stay on the ISS? Before they start to run into microgravity issues, that is.

 

[Urwumpe]

How long can the current crew stay on the ISS? Before they start to run into microgravity issues, that is.

They always plan with 6 months of reserve if a freighter fails. Two failing freighters would be bad, not because of the astronauts having to eat the really ugly tin food, but because the ISS would then be too low for operations and reenter just a few weeks later.

 

[markl316]

How long can the current crew stay on the ISS? Before they start to run into microgravity issues, that is.

Do you mean like atrophy, bone loss, etc? If that's what you meant, I read that they lose about 1% bone mass every month. As long as they keep exercising, they can probably stay up quite a bit longer. Hey, maybe this can be good for researching how humans handle very long exposure to microgravity for missions to Mars or a Jovian moon.

---------- Post added at 04:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:55 PM ----------

because the ISS would then be too low for operations and reenter just a few weeks later.

Don't they have a fuel supply on board to do a burn every couple of weeks to combat orbit deterioration?

 

[Urwumpe]

Don't they have a fuel supply on board to do a burn every couple of weeks to combat orbit deterioration?

Yes, but this is limited and is also needed for collision avoidance if no progress freighter is docked.

 

[markl316]

Yes, but this is limited and is also needed for collision avoidance if no progress freighter is docked.

Good point. They've said there are enough supplies until spring, any word on how much fuel is left?

 

[Urwumpe]

Good point. They've said there are enough supplies until spring, any word on how much fuel is left?

No idea, but should be pretty much. Sadly, this means nothing at all, since the ISS also consumes a lot of fuel per maneuver.

 

[C3PO]

STS-135 put ISS ahead when it comes to food etc. The real problem is the Soyuz' expiration date. They can't stay docked forever, and no new crew will launch until this one is figured out.

 

[Dive]

2 failures in a 10 days for Russian cosmonautics, 3 failures in 9 months, 5 satelites lost for 9 months, and all of them were non-comercial (all the commercial launches were succesful).
Sabotage ?..
Someone told here that Chinese spaceships can't dock with ISS. Actualy, it's possible. But i don't think Russia will allow it. Chinese spaceships can dock to the ISS because their systems are similar to russian. Actually, they're stollen from Russia. That's why Russia would not allow docking. Chinese spies are currently in jail in Russia for 11 years, however, they already completed their task - China created a copy of Soyuz.