Obama Speaks

[Andy44]

Well, I successfully predicted back in 2005 that whoever the next president was the whole Constellation thing was going to get canned.

I predict this will also go nowhere. Obama knows how to make people smile, but he doesn't have to actually deliver any of this stuff, nor can he make Congress pay for it.

Not that he's not good at wasting money, but he doesn't have any motivation to waste money on a space program which does little to support his ideological goals. He does, however, need to cool down the political heat he took from canceling Constellation, so he's doing what politicians have always done with space: make big promises for the future, get some applause, and then quietly forget about it all later on down the road.

This is my prediction: The US will get some sort of LEO capability, be it Orion or Falcon-Dragon or something similar, but that's about it. No HLV, no trips to Mars or even Luna. Those who really want to go will have to find a way to pay for it themselves someday, a la Branson or Musk.

 

[anemazoso]

Well, I successfully predicted back in 2005 that whoever the next president was the whole Constellation thing was going to get canned.

I predict this will also go nowhere. Obama knows how to make people smile, but he doesn't have to actually deliver any of this stuff, nor can he make Congress pay for it.

Not that he's not good at wasting money, but he doesn't have any motivation to waste money on a space program which does little to support his ideological goals. He does, however, need to cool down the political heat he took from canceling Constellation, so he's doing what politicians have always done with space: make big promises for the future, get some applause, and then quietly forget about it all later on down the road.

This is my prediction: The US will get some sort of LEO capability, be it Orion or Falcon-Dragon or something similar, but that's about it. No HLV, no trips to Mars or even Luna. Those who really want to go will have to find a way to pay for it themselves someday, a la Branson or Musk.

As much as I don't want to I have to agree with ya. I remember you predicting this back then and I totally disagreed with you then. I was wrong.

Aside from all the high minded debate we all participate in I think whether you are for the new plan of for Constellation or any other plan we all want to see SOMETHING happen and space exploration progress. How frustrating!

 

[Urwumpe]

I think you misunderstand what the plan is: It is a medicine for a illness, and good medicine tastes bitter.

Look how far the ten billion USD for Constellation have brought us: Back to 1990. The only special thing was the superfluous Ares I-X launch,otherwise most of the money ended in doing research, done inside NASA in the period 1986 to 1994, a second time. The Ares I did already exist back then in NASA studies, as the Ares V, and in all NASA studies about the ALS/NLS, the course of the Ares V was so well described that you could literally predict the next mass increase with only 500 lbs error.

Constellation was really showing the best what NASA had. And it was a special form of perfected incompetence. The people did what they had been best in, and that was doing result-independent feasibility studies and assigning porkbarrel contracts. There was no change in the minds, like: Oh, a great challenge and a national demand to fulfill, lets focus on the task, concentrate on the next hurdle and take it.

It was more like "Oh, a new program with ensured funding and secure jobs...hmm...what can we do now during the time we are forced to be in the office?"

The spirit of Apollo, that was always summoned in the past years, was not dead - it had become a pensioner. It came back to NASAs offices like Bob Kelso, for the free muffins for life-time, trying to give good advices, but being as much not taken seriously, as not being able to understand what the task actually is.

And now, maybe NASA and the USA both really need such kind of a shock therapy. They now got presented a small glimpse at the future, in which NASA was a completely irrelevant artifact of the past and private companies do the work. Where historically grown dinosaurs like the United Space Alliance are only alive if they adapt to the new market environment.

Its bit like the old Churchill saying: If you don't feel shocked at this revelation, you have no heart. But if you don't feel at the same time the vast ocean of new chances that open up, you have no brain.

 

[anemazoso]

Its bit like the old Churchill saying: If you don't feel shocked at this revelation, you have no heart. But if you don't feel at the same time the vast ocean of new chances that open up, you have no brain.

It's not as simple as that. You can't manage a good HSF program in 4, 6 or even 8 year increments. Their needs to be long term planning and commitment and I don't think that can happen in the US anymore.

 

[Urwumpe]

It's not as simple as that. You can't manage a good HSF program in 4, 6 or even 8 year increments. Their needs to be long term planning and commitment and I don't think that can happen in the US anymore.

I doubt that, I think if the project management would have acted with more discipline during the first year of constellation, it could have been a great project, running for more than the terms of presidents or congress.

Just remember, that all people love winners, especially the average US citizen. There wouldn't be anybody saying "It is running successful, but because it was started by the wrong president, I will cancel it". It is pretty hard to sell this to the voters. Usually the citizens are smart enough to look through such party political favors and rate them negative.

But if your successes become so rare, that only NASA engineers themselves can see the progress, you are in dangerous waters.

In a perfect world (yes, I know it doesn't exist), all government agencies are smoothly operating gear boxes, which run, regardless which minister or administrator is presenting it. The change in politics affects the long-term decisions, but the everyday business runs smooth. Can't say this applied to NASA at any time during the past 20 years. Even in politically stable years, NASA was more fighting with itself, than with gravity or politics.

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

Neil Armstrong's letter to President Obama regarding the future of human spaceflight.

 

[Urwumpe]

Neil Armstrong's letter to President Obama regarding the future of human spaceflight.

I know it is not a sign of respect, what I am going to post now, but the letter does just require it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy

 

[Donamy]

I don't see how, we'll keep American kids, interested in space anymore.:thumbsdown:

 

[PhantomCruiser]

We may be able to keep the interest of our youth (hopefully a global youth) interseted if Pres. Obama can strongarm the Congress into funding the program. I'm not a big fan of Orion "lite" as a rescue boat, I'd like a full fledged CEV. I do like the idea of it being a test bed/development platform for flights into deep space, asteroids, Mars, moons of Mars, etc... NASA gets to keep track of the science and medical tech involved and gets to "problem solve".

But I may be living in a fantasy world, I didn't vote for the guy, but I really want THIS to succeed. And whoever the next President is I'd like him/her not to scrap the program out of spite, but to keep pressing on.

 

[dnt462]

I think that in the with the position that NASA in, i think an Orion"Lite" is an acceptable solution, The can get Orion made, I expect launch it on an already existing launcher with no need to man rate the launcher(Correct?) Then work on a HLV and upgrade Orion. And the more I think about it, sending more to the commercial sector seem to make lots of sense, I mean, Its time for some companies to learn how to put people in LEO, Because NASA seem pretty good at it.

 

[Ark]

I'll take a crew-capable Orion on an existing EELV over nothing but the hope that SpaceX will come up with something eventually.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

There is alway Bigelow as well. From what I've read they are proceeding with their own Orilon-lite. And SpaceX plans to press ahead with their Dragon as a crewed (not crude, but with people...) spacecraft.
All-in-all I'm pretty excited about the future of manned space travel. I wish I were younger so I could assist/participate, as it is all I can do is to pay my taxes and watch.
My kid may get her opportunity though, she's leaning towards the technical fields... Perhaps she can be a future mission specialist?

 

[Shadow Addict]

I don't see how, we'll keep American kids, interested in space anymore.:thumbsdown:

Orbiter does definitely have an impact, even if it's a bit small. I was 13 when I found Orbiter, and it single-handedly introduced me to the world of spaceflight. Now, I'm incredibly passionate about it. It doesn't happen too often, but it does occasionally.

 

[Urwumpe]

I don't see how, we'll keep American kids, interested in space anymore.:thumbsdown:

The 1960s are long over. No kid wants to become astronaut today, they directly start at gangster.

 

[N_Molson]

I'm working in education, and I fear that Urumpwe is 100% right (well, 99,99%, let's be optimistic). Even young children have almost no imagination.

I was teaching a class of 11-12 years old a few weeks ago. I asked them to write a newspaper article from a photograph. All pictures were different. Amongst them, there was a Space Shuttle liftoff, and a Soyuz capsule on it's side with the recovery team around. I was curious of their reactions.

Space Shuttle : "oh it's boring, there's nothing to say, can I have another one ?"
Soyuz capsule : "what is it ?? I've no idea !" Well, I told to the kid it was a "space capsule", that fell from a rocket. With that, he wrote a funny story about martian invaders. That was cool.

But you know what ? There's a big Theme Park about space in town (Toulouse, France, home of the CNES & Ariane Espace), and there is a real Soyuz capsule inside. You can even seat inside, it's really cool ! But the little guy never went there (and his parents have money). So it's a little... disappointing !

It's where Orbiter can definitively play it's role.

And it's why sci-fi "ready to fly" vessels like the DeltaGlider, or even more powerful ones, are essential. If kids have the opportunity to just "play with things", they will learn.

Of course from a personal point of view I prefer very realistic and unforgiving add-ons. I'm having a lot of fun with the "Soyuz FG/U" series, by thornton & igel (excellent add-on !!).

So let's promote space exploration with Orbiter, without neglecting "fun" aspects like cool graphics and other pretty effects.

 

[Ark]

But you know what ? There's a big Theme Park about space in town (Toulouse, France, home of the CNES & Ariane Espace), and there is a real Soyuz capsule inside. You can even seat inside, it's really cool ! But the little guy never went there (and his parents have money). So it's a little... disappointing !

I know where I'm going on my next vacation. :thumbup:

 

[RisingFury]

I don't see how, we'll keep American kids, interested in space anymore.:thumbsdown:

Yea... all those poor kids, that live in countries with no space programs (including me), oh, those poor souls... they'll have nobody to look up to, no dreams of space... oh...

 

[T.Neo]

I think the key is to get them interested at an early age. Entertainment is among the, if not the most important influence to young children- it should be used to expose them to science and technology in a captivating manner. In the 1960s there was plenty of child-captivating science fiction. Nowdays it seems all that children are interested in is social networking and celebrity culture, which is a real shame.

 

[Ghostrider]

No, you cannot get them interested. They're dead inside. They lack curiosity and initiative. You could expose them to all sorts of magnificent and awe-inspiring stuff and all you would get is a blank, twitching stare.

 

[Ark]

No, you cannot get them interested. They're dead inside. They lack curiosity and initiative. You could expose them to all sorts of magnificent and awe-inspiring stuff and all you would get is a blank, twitching stare.

That's what we have Ritalin for.