I think part of the problem is that Astronautix.com doesn't factor in the throttle-down towards the end of the first stage burn. I crunched some numbers, and I came up with an actual burn time for the first stage of 227 seconds. That might help you get more accurate results.
I'll try it.
Given complications like aerodynamic drag, air pressure reducing the thrust and/or (?) ISP of the engines, and throttling for Max-Q limiting and G limiting, it seems unlikely that the 1st stage can be accurate. However I'd think the 2nd stage should be able to get very close, since only G limiting would apply, to normal flight profiles anyways.