Discussion The next 100 years..

[FADEC]

In the 1950s they thought we would have a moon base in the 1970s...

The sad thing is that we actually were able to have a moon base in the 1970s. But we just didn't do it.

 

[Ghostrider]

The 17-year voyage to Uranus was too daunting to me, in Orbiter, with a scenario editor:lol:

Ah, it was the time factor for you? For me, it was simply that "I've been to Uranus" isn't a good pick-up line.

 

[Izack]

Ah, it was the time factor for you? For me, it was simply that "I've been to Uranus" isn't a good pick-up line.

True, but who could pass up "I've been to Neptune. Want to see the Trident?"

 

[Codz]

True, but who could pass up "I've been to Neptune. Want to see the Trident?"

You mean Triton?:rofl:

 

[Mattyv]

Pessimist in me speaking:

I'm starting to doubt that anyone on Earth will go back to the Moon, let alone Mars, in my lifetime. (and I'm almost 19).

Before 2112...... maybe.

 

[Jarod]

The problem with a war is that it can be unpredictable, and when you enter one you can't easily exit.

Unless you have a warp drive.

 

[MattBaker]

Pessimist in me speaking:

I'm starting to doubt that anyone on Earth will go back to the Moon, let alone Mars, in my lifetime. (and I'm almost 19).

Before 2112...... maybe.

I think politics will have a huge influence on that.
If China tries to impress the world and show their superiority, they could go to Moon by 2030.
If a US president is someone, who is a advocate of spaceflight (is Mark Kelly now actually running for Senate or not?) the US could be on the Moon in 2030, but if someone like Ron Paul will become president, who thinks spaceflight should be for national defense and everything else should be done by private companies, spaceflight will stagnate and there is no moon landing 'til 2040/2050.

 

[Izack]

EELVs can be used for manned space exploration. But, they are not yet used for manned space exploration, which makes it a theoretical scenario.

Well, anything regarding US manned spaceflight right now is a theoretical scenario.

And yes there's more to man-rating EELV, but there's also a lot more to designing, manufacturing, man-rating and finding some sort of use for SLS.

 

[RGClark]

According to Bolden, NASA's Orion won't be able to carry crew until 2021:

Wed, 7 March, 2012
Bolden Locks Horns with Hutchison Over Commercial Crew, Orion Funding.
By Dan Leone

Bolden defended NASA’s 2013 request for SLS and Orion as “consistent” with the funding levels envisioned when he shared a podium with Hutchison and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) last September to unveil the agency’s plan for building the congressionally mandated rocket and conducting its first unmanned test launch in 2017 followed by the first crewed launch in 2021.

http://www.spacenews.com/civil/120307-bolden-hutchison-commercial-orion-funding.html

He says however commercial crew launches can begin by 2017. The 2021 crewed launch of Orion means as carried by SLS. It's not clear if the earlier 2017 commercial crewed launches might include Orion carried by a man-rated EELV, such as the Delta IV or Atlas V.
A 2021 date for U.S. manned launches is clearly too long a period after the last shuttle launch, a full decade. The 2017 commercial crew launch date is barely acceptable.
I've already given my views on this. The components for a small SSTO launcher capable of carrying a small capsule, say half the size of the Dragon, already exist. An unmanned prototype probably could be launched in a year. This would be at a development cost a small fraction of the development cost of the Orion alone, if privately financed. Considering the small size of the launcher, numerous unmanned test launches could be made again at a small fraction of the launch cost of Orion on SLS, even as an expendable. That would allow it to be manned-flight qualified within one to two years after prototype first launch.

Bob Clark

 

[Urwumpe]

I've already given my views on this. The components for a small SSTO launcher capable of carrying a small capsule, say half the size of the Dragon, already exist.

The stones for building the Great Pyramid of Giza did also already exist, still it took decades to build.

And while Da Vinci already described how helicopters could work, it was not until 1943, when they finally appeared for the first time.

You can't even make a blueprint of a SSTO that could be build, so, what do you think, will your vision be worth?

Also, a small capsule does not get designed faster than a large capsule. The number of functions and design criteria defines how long something lasts to be designed.

 

[Urwumpe]

12 manned launches per year are at least not far off - the shuttle also already had such launch rates in its history.

 

[DaveS]

12 manned launches per year are at least not far off - the shuttle also already had such launch rates in its history.

12 flights were the goal of 1986. The best accomplished was 9 and that was in 1985! 1985 also saw the fastest turnaround of an orbiter(50 days, Atlantis).

 

[Urwumpe]

12 flights were the goal of 1986. The best accomplished was 9 and that was in 1985! 1985 also saw the fastest turnaround of an orbiter(50 days, Atlantis).

Didn't they reach 11 flights one year after the Post-Challenger return to flight?

 

[FADEC]

But who wants to launch humans 12 times a year? There is no demand.

 

[Urwumpe]

But who wants to launch humans 12 times a year? There is no demand.

There was also no demand for flying 550 passengers four times per day over the Atlantic when the first passenger aircraft appeared.

Demand can be stimulated by the ability. Also, one launch per month could also mean more visiting crews at a space station, for example with paying customers... or more fresh food on the station, better logistics...

 

[FADEC]

There was also no demand for flying 550 passengers four times per day over the Atlantic when the first passenger aircraft appeared.

Yes. But airplanes for hundreds of passengers only exist because airlines have that demand, and especially because millions of people around the world want to or have to (occupational) fly from A to B. They can afford the tickets.

What happens in spaceflight is that people are in hope that there could be a demand. Creating the ability might stimulate a certain market, but I think it will be mostly for satellites/probes. The number of people which are privileged enough to visit the ISS for millions of dollars is quite limited I think (and the lifetime of the ISS also is quite limited). I think it's still to early in the history of space flight. Sometimes I'm almost sad that I was born too early in some cases. How exciting would it be to take a ticket for a trip to mars. Big colonies. Or somewhere else. Damn. I can be lucky to witness a landing on Mars in front of a TV/computer screen if at all. But even the moon is still a bigger challenge (politically) than in the 1960s which is more than a pain in the a**.

We are stuck in earth orbit for decades, decades after we left earth orbit. Or in other words: we stopped dreaming. And all that commercial and economic jabbering just is space flight light, the hope to get something working with an anarchy in the manned space flight business and magic markets due to limited budgets. It might work for LEO sometime in the future. But certainly not any farther into space as part of a national exploration program. And a non-national exploration program is a pipe dream.

 

[Jarod]

Discussion about how stolen money could be spent wisely can go on forever.
Don't forget the subject :

have at it, your predicted/fantasy space chronology, 2011-2111

Emphasis is mine.
So my version :
now-2020 : economic crisis due to national debts is putting most national space programs to an end, commercial ventures are rising since they are more efficient and have lower costs.
2020-2030 : 3 small orbital hotels are in LEO. Some of them are used as laboratories.
Prospective landers are sent to the Moon to evaluate the mining potential as costs on Earth are rising due to excessive regulations and taxation.
2030-2040 : Fuel depots are in LEO, small mining operations on the Moon for what would be valuable elements at the time.
6 orbital hotels are in existance.
2040-2050 : Small commercial manned base on the moon, but not always inhabited, mainly for purpose of maintenance of mining operations which gain in size.
Local production of water , oxygen only for the base needs.
12 orbital hotels in LEO, 1 around the Moon.
2050-2060 : Moon base is constantly manned. Local production of water, oxygen steps up as the base is hosting tourists.
Fuel depots are mainly refueled by Moon production.
A second concurrent mining base is built.

50 years is enough speculation for me

 

[dbeachy1]

O-F Staff Note: 24 off-topic political posts moved to The Basement. Please feel free to continue the spending debate there, but let's please stay on-topic in this thread and keep the political flamewars in The Basement. Thanks.

 

[RGClark]

According to Bolden, NASA's Orion won't be able to carry crew until 2021:

Wed, 7 March, 2012
Bolden Locks Horns with Hutchison Over Commercial Crew, Orion Funding.
By Dan Leone

http://www.spacenews.com/civil/120307-bolden-hutchison-commercial-orion-funding.html

He says however commercial crew launches can begin by 2017. The 2021 crewed launch of Orion means as carried by SLS. It's not clear if the earlier 2017 commercial crewed launches might include Orion carried by a man-rated EELV, such as the Delta IV or Atlas V.
A 2021 date for U.S. manned launches is clearly too long a period after the last shuttle launch, a full decade. The 2017 commercial crew launch date is barely acceptable.

Commercial crew participants believe they could begin manned flights as early as 2014:

Private Space Race On to Launch US Astronauts for NASA.
by Mike Wall, SPACE.com Senior Writer
Date: 30 September 2011 Time: 07:00 AM ET

NASA's next crew-carrying rocket, the heavy-lift Space Launch System, will blast off on its first test flight in 2017 at the earliest, agency officials have said. But a handful of private companies say they're on schedule to begin lofting astronauts by 2015 — or perhaps even earlier.
"We believe we'll be ready in three years," said Gwynne Shotwell, president of Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (also known as SpaceX).

http://www.space.com/13134-private-space-race-nasa-astronauts-2015.html

And both Boeing with the CST-100 and the Sierra Nevada with the Dream Chaser believe they can begin manned test flights by 2015. I'm especially optimistic about the CST-100 since it seems to be progressing rapidly in its development process:

Boeing CST-100 Crew Capsule Progressing Swiftly.

Boeing Completes PDR of Commercial Crew Space Transportation Vehicle.

Both the Dream Chaser and the CST-100 are to be launched on the smallest version of the Atlas V, the one without strap on boosters. Lockheed also believes this can be ready for manned flights by 2015.
Interestingly Lockheed believes this Atlas V version will only require minimal modification to be man-rated:

Human Rated Atlas V for Bigelow Space Station details emerge.
January 31st, 2007 by Braddock Gaskill
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2007/01/human-rated-atlas-v-for-bigelow-space-station-details-emerge/

Atlas V for Commercial Passenger Transportation.
Jeff A. Patton1 and Joshua B. Hopkins2
Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, P.O. Box 179, Denver Colorado 80433
http://www.ulalaunch.com/site/docs/...CommercialPassengerTransportation20067268.pdf

This is interesting because during the debate about continuing the Constellation program or using EELV's to launch the Orion capsule, the argument was made that it would cost billions to man-rate the EELV's to carry the Orion. But this was because the Orion was so heavy and would have required the full versions with the side boosters to lift it, which would be more difficult to man-rate.
With much lighter capsules or spacecraft the single core Atas V can be used which is much easier to man-rate.

Bob Clark

 

[Jarvitä]

So my version :
now-2020 : economic crisis due to national debts is putting most national space programs to an end, commercial ventures are rising since they are more efficient and have lower costs.
2020-2030 : 3 small orbital hotels are in LEO. Some of them are used as laboratories.
Prospective landers are sent to the Moon to evaluate the mining potential as costs on Earth are rising due to excessive regulations and taxation.
2030-2040 : Fuel depots are in LEO, small mining operations on the Moon for what would be valuable elements at the time.
6 orbital hotels are in existance.
2040-2050 : Small commercial manned base on the moon, but not always inhabited, mainly for purpose of maintenance of mining operations which gain in size.
Local production of water , oxygen only for the base needs.
12 orbital hotels in LEO, 1 around the Moon.
2050-2060 : Moon base is constantly manned. Local production of water, oxygen steps up as the base is hosting tourists.
Fuel depots are mainly refueled by Moon production.
A second concurrent mining base is built.

50 years is enough speculation for me

I love playing this!

Now - 2020:
Several theoretical breakthroughs in materials science and space propulsion, but little actual spaceflight activity beyond what we have now, with more efficient launchers.
2020s: Manned Lunar and NEO missions
2030s: Permanent Lunar settlement, manned Mars missions, NEO capture missions, routine commercial orbital and suborbital transport
2040s: Mars colonisation, Mercury is seeded with high-efficiency solar cells and becomes the power plant of the solar system
2050s: First human uploads and/or general AI. A captured NEO is succesfully converted to computronium.
2060s: Gas giants converted into supercomputers, most sophonts in-system no longer exist in flesh, first generation of interstellar von Neumann colonies is launched.

(add zeroes to taste)