Venturing past Pluto.....

[MJR]

Do you think that we will ever make it past Pluto? Is it possible that we will have manned missions all the way past Pluto?

 

[garyw]

Voyager 1 and 2 area already past Pluto.

 

[blane]

I cant participate on the poll as I can't answer the question. If you mean "we" by what we define as human society, I'd say No. If "we" is whatever major species is living on our planets in several thousand years, I am inclined to say Yes.

 

[MJR]

OK let me put ths in simpler terms. Do you think ever in our future that "we" humans will have manned missions past Pluto and beyond?

 

[Urwumpe]

Sure, there is nothing which speaks against it, except the required technology. which we will have at a point in history.

 

[MJR]

That is one thing that I am constantly thinking about. What will our technology be in hundreds or even thousands or years?

 

[blane]

I don't think there will be manned missions beyond pluto. Apart from the technology aspect I cannot find a good reason to do so.

 

[Urwumpe]

I don't think there will be manned missions beyond pluto. Apart from the technology aspect I cannot find a good reason to do so.

There was often no good reason in history to do something - until it was done anyway. Also, who knows which reasons we will have in 20 years? 20 years ago, in 1988, we had no reason to own a computer graphic card with hardware video decoder or 3D acceleration. Those specialist cards which existed at that time for the job had been slow and expensive (Over 22,000 DM).

Now, try to use Youtube with a graphic card, where all hardware acceleration is disabled. Suddenly you have a reason for it to have it. In 1988, nobody would have expected that a 3D accelerator card will one day only cost around 40 € and be installed in every PC. Even computer game designers at that time did not expect this to happen.

 

[garyw]

There is a good reason - One day the sun will die.

 

[pete.dakota]

Realistically, given current known means of powered acceleration, I'd say no. It would be a one-way trip; the astronauts would die in space and never come back. That's given current tech, though. Advances in the future (perhaps 000's of years from now) may allow for manned trips beyond our solar system.

Again, though, another poll wherein the question is far too vague for a 'Yes or No' answer. Be more concise, guys! Start a discussion, not yet another poll.

 

[blane]

There was often no good reason in history to do something - until it was done anyway. Also, who knows which reasons we will have in 20 years?

I don't believe that we would have any more reason to go beyond Pluto (as manned mission) in 20 years than we do have now. For that matter, I am quite sure this will not change in 100 years either.

As for longer periods of time: Certainly a reason and an actual mission cannot be ruled out. That the sun will die certainly is a reason, but this is so far off that it's hard to believe that humans as such will then leave the solar system.

So far I don't think it's a given that humans are the last attempt of evolution on our planet. As a matter of fact, it rather looks like humans will eradicate themselves so evolution can try yet another path. Maybe these entities will someday leave our solar system.

20 years ago, in 1988, we had no reason to own a computer graphic card with hardware video decoder or 3D acceleration. Those specialist cards which existed at that time for the job had been slow and expensive (Over 22,000 DM).

Now, try to use Youtube with a graphic card, where all hardware acceleration is disabled. Suddenly you have a reason for it to have it. In 1988, nobody would have expected that a 3D accelerator card will one day only cost around 40 € and be installed in every PC. Even computer game designers at that time did not expect this to happen.

I don't think you can compare computer technology with advances in space science and technology. First of all, there is Moore's Law which is special to computers as such. Second, if we look at the actual history of manned missions, it does not look very good; one could say that we abandoned it almost 40 years ago.

For that matter: I do believe that even if we start another manned mission to the moon and even mars, it will not help much in terms of space exploration unless these missions are designes to actually come back and stay -- i.e. lunar/mars bases which are manned all the time.

As far as I know, so far even all theoretical missions are more or less one-time operations. I don't think this attitude will bring us to Pluto in any foreseeable future.

 

[Urwumpe]

We did not abandon manned spaceflight - we continued to improve it... the ISS is maybe in a boring location, but is technologically the most advanced and complex spacecraft.

Of course there are a lot reasons to criticize manned spaceflight, but lack of progress is not one of it.

 

[blane]

Okay, I omitted manned flights in LEO. But for the reason as these missions do not primarily serve the purpose to advance further (of course future missions would undoubtly profit from this knowledge).

Establishing an ISS like structure in the moon orbit would be something different for that matter.

LEOs are really not that special I think -- although it's still a major accomplishment (alone the necessary delta-v to schlepp payload).

I remember Clarke's vision in the 50ies and early 60ies: For instance we would not only have satellites in geostationary orbit but also frequent manned missions.

From what I understand: Currently it's way too expensive to plan and launch manned missions. Not because it's just a matter of money but because there is no real gain, unmanned missions can usually achieve the same for much less money and risk.

Of course, there is the reason: The natural urge for exploration and curiosity. This is why I believe there will be a manned mission to mars and if I am lucky, I may be even live to see that.

But as for going to Pluto and beyond, I just fail to see a path that makes sense currently.

 

[Urwumpe]

Clarke's vision did also have nuclear solutions for any thinkable problem.

 

[blane]

Clarke's vision did also have nuclear solutions for any thinkable problem.

True, but isn't that still our best bet by means of efficiency?

 

[Ghostrider]

But as for going to Pluto and beyond, I just fail to see a path that makes sense currently.

Poor Pluto, after all the tiny, itty-bitty planet has gone through, it would be good to get there only to throw a party and, like, hug the little guy?

 

[blane]

It at least had its moment (several decades) of fame. Most plutoids and other Kuiper Belt objects cannot claim so

 

[Urwumpe]

True, but isn't that still our best bet by means of efficiency?

Not for all problems. While Clarkes vision was great and very realistic, he did not know more about the spaceflight as the rest of humanity at this time. Which was not much - the first human spaceflight was yet to come. Most practical problems of working in space had been unknown to him.

 

[unknown_orbiter]

When Thomas Edison was asked about his "failures" proceeding the working light bulb, he said "I did not fail, I simply found 1,000 ways not to make a light bulb". Inability to find working means for deep-space missions is no reason to give them up entirely. Each failure is a learning experience, which will accumulate into a working invention.

 

[blane]

Not for all problems. While Clarkes vision was great and very realistic, he did not know more about the spaceflight as the rest of humanity at this time. Which was not much - the first human spaceflight was yet to come. Most practical problems of working in space had been unknown to him.

I meant only in regards to propulsion.

However, Clarke did learn quite some things in his life. Only in his very early career (1950ies) he focused most of his visions on nuclear technology - no wonder at that time. But he still wrote short stories even after we landed an astronaut on the moon -- and in his latest books with Baxter (A Time Odyssey, great reading, btw) nuclear technology played no role anymore.

PS: I think it wasn't Edison who invented the light bulb (Jehova!)