Updates SpaceX Falcon 9 F5 CRS SpX-2 through CRS SpX-12 Updates

[IronRain]

From Twitter:

Need to investigate the upper stage Z actuator. Was behaving strangely. Next launch attempt on Friday at 5am.

 

[Astro SG Wise]

I have to mirror fsci123. Yep, ScrubX.

 

[MattBaker]

From Elon Musk's AMA on reddit:

"Previously, you've stated that you estimate a 50% probability of success with the attempted landing on the automated spaceport drone ship tomorrow. Can you discuss the factors that were considered to make that estimation?"

"I pretty much made that up. I have no idea "


That's an...interesting way to do statistics.

 

[Urwumpe]

That's an...interesting way to do statistics.

Still better than the NASA management method of calculating the reliability of a system by calculating the likelihood of every single component including every screw and bolt failing all at once during flight and subtracting the result from 100%.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

Rather scrub than boom, or some other failure. Particularly as the dudes (and dude-ettes) from Orbital are putting their pieces back in place.

The ISS isn't in any dire need of the cargo, and the 1st stage recovery is still a test.

"You can have it right, or right now. Pick one" (me)

 

[C3PO]

I don't understand why some people are so interested in the probability for success on a test flight. The objective is to learn what's ok and what needs to be changed. To calculate any meaningful percentage you have to know the answers from the test beforehand. Test flights will never reach the numbers where probability makes any sense. Until the results are in, we'll just have best guesses backed up by opinions.

And even if we know the percentage, what then? Probability can't predict the outcome of a specific event. It could be 25%, 50% or 90% and we'd still have no idea of the result beforehand. It either works or it doesn't, or more likely: some parts work better than others.

PS: Whenever somebody says "50% chance" it means that they have no idea about the result.

 

[Cairan]

With Quicksaves, the reliability is always 100%...

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

In the mean time.....

 

[Unstung]

I think the Up Goer Five looks more impressive.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

I think the Up Goer Five looks more impressive.

Yeah, Randall did a good job on Up Goer. Can't tell if this is his handiwork, or an imitator.

Either way, got a good chuckle out of it.

 

[Unstung]

Yeah, Randall did a good job on Up Goer. Can't tell if this is his handiwork, or an imitator.

Either way, got a good chuckle out of it.

It's probably made by someone who was inspired by Munroe, but the size of the Saturn V is gigantic in comparison.

But the flying space car that has taken people to another world does not have the part that folds out when the first part is just above the big boat.

 

[Urwumpe]

The "Bird 9" homage has now been also shared by SpaceX on Facebook

 

[Gerdih]

Does someone know if the Barge platform have any dreegres of freedom to mantain an horitzontal plane? Or is the issue solved with more work on the code that makes the first stage land?

 

[PhantomCruiser]

With the azipod thrusters it can turn "into" the waves to dampen out any roll motion, but there is still pitch to deal with. During the press conference the SpaceX rep (Hans?) mentioned that it could handle 12 foot swells (been there and done that myself a few times). With that in mind, there has to be a go/no go limit where SpaceX aborts a recovery to prevent killing the platform.

 

[Scruce]

The launch has been scrubbed again to 09:47 GMT on Saturday the 10th.

 

[ADSWNJ]

Dammit ... that's an early wake-up Saturday morning (EST).

 

[dman]

Dammit ... that's an early wake-up Saturday morning (EST).

Its the weekend dude.......

Suck it up.......

 

[MattBaker]

Yes, massively ing up your sleep patterns can be solved by just "sucking it up"...

 

[PhantomCruiser]

Or work my shift. I'll be wide awake to see the launch.

 

[Kyle]

SpaceX has been quite fond of night launches. COTS-2+, CRS-1, SES-8, AsiaSat-8, AsiaSat-6, CRS-4...