You were right in your assumption, vertical speed and total mass.
From the XR Flight Operations Manual:
[math]\mathrm 2.8\cdot (35748+10795) = 130320.4 \;kg\cdot m\cdot s^{-1}[/math]
The 35748 kg FLM includes 16080kg (empty mass) + 14200kg (Main+RCS) + 3350kg (SCRAM) + 1024kg (14 crew) + 268kg (APU) + 364kg (LOX) + 462kg (???) {I have no idea where those extra 462 kg are from. A fully loaded default XR2 with no cargo, actually weighs 35286 kg}
[math]\mathrm 4.2\cdot (16080+(14200*0.33)+1024+268+364+462+(10795*0.75)) = 130117.05 \;kg\cdot m\cdot s^{-1}[/math]
{Here I am making the assumption that all the SCRAM fuel has been used}
For an autopilot, I'd go for [math]\mathrm M_{total}\cdot (-vel_y) < 13e4 \;kg\cdot m\cdot s^{-1}[/math]
Notice that an empty XR2 with only the pilot, 1 kg of LOX and 5kg of APU can land with a vertical speed:
[math] \mathrm -vel_y = \frac{13e4}{16080+78+1+5} = 8.04\; m\cdot s^{-1}[/math]
IIRC that value is correct. I have landed empty Ravenstars with vertical speeds of about 7.5 m/s without the gear collapsing.