News EgyptAir flight MS804 disappears from radar between Paris and Cairo

[dbeachy1]

Airline says plane, which took off from France’s Charles de Gaulle airport late on Wednesday night, has gone missing with 66 people on board.

Live updates and more info here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

 

[MaverickSawyer]

.... Not again.

 

[SolarLiner]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MSR804

37 000 ft at 533 kts GS and steady when it disappeared from the radars.

 

[Quick_Nick]

Notable update.

EgyptAir says that the plane’s emergency devices (possibly an emergency locator transmitter or beacon) sent a distress signal that was received at 4.26am, some two hours after the previously stated last radar contact.

 

[Urwumpe]

Notable update.

Really notable - though it just means that the aircraft crashed into the ocean, ELB likely separated late from the fuselage and took a moment until a receiver detected it.

Since it disappeared from the radar without signs of a dive or other problems, it must have had a massive acute failure to start with, so that the transponder failed and it disappeared from secondary radar. The plot on flightradar24 is perfectly steady until the end, same as on flight aware.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ms804/#9c0b766

I would put terrorism high on my guesstimate list right now, since there are no SAMs around for similar disappearances.

 

[Quick_Nick]

Am I wrong to be surprised that nobody has radar tracking every object's slightest movements over most of the Mediterranean? The plane was less than 200 miles from Alexandria at the last known location as given by Flightradar24. Is it just that the track after that point hasn't yet been given to the public by e.g. Egypt? Or is there really no more information to give?

 

[Urwumpe]

Am I wrong to be surprised that nobody has radar tracking every object's slightest movements over most of the Mediterranean? The plane was less than 200 miles from Alexandria at the last known location as given by Flightradar24. Is it just that the track after that point hasn't yet been given to the public by e.g. Egypt? Or is there really no more information to give?

Those pages rely on secondary radar data, that is all. Primary radar likely has still tracked the aircraft, but then in it is just a small blip on the screen, without flight data. Secondary radar allows automatically assigning the radar information to the flight by using the transponder responses, primary radar requires human operators to find out which track matches which flight (or is a bird). The secondary radar information is also more accurate regarding altitude and ground velocity, the primary radar is rather coarse, especially at the edge of its range.

Also, at least one AWACS should be in the region all the time because of the Syrian conflict, so you can assume that the aircraft was possibly also tracked by NATO.

 

[SolarLiner]

AFP confirmed the plane crashed off of Karpathos: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/733201436717113344

 

[Urwumpe]

Yes, the captain of a freighter has reported seeing a flame in the sky, 130 SM south of Karpathos.

 

[SolarLiner]

The CVR or the FDR splashed down, as an EET signal was received at 02:26 UTC. http://www.theguardian.com/world/li...b0451a6f4827c4#block-573d5c01e4b0451a6f4827c4

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

A target for terrorist attack would be the French-Egyptian military relations, which include contracts for heavy weapons and armaments. But a terrorist attack still seems unlikely to me.

 

[Fabri91]

Regarding the possibility of a terror attack, has any group claimed responsibility? An attack would be useless if nobody knew why it was done.

 

[Ravenous]

News reports now are talking of several heading changes after all:

Panos Kammenos said the Airbus A320 had "turned 90 degrees left and a 360-degree turn to the right" and dropped more than 6,700m (20,000ft) before disappearing from radar.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36333992

They're speculating some sort of attack in the cockpit at the moment. (All very much speculation of course.)

 

[SolarLiner]

Regarding the possibility of a terror attack, has any group claimed responsibility? An attack would be useless if nobody knew why it was done.

On previous attacks there has been several claims from several groups. I'd say that even if they did claim, it wouldn't make it absolute proof it was. In the end we have to wait until the wreckage is found. Which will be easier than near Australia due to the currents (or lack thereof), AFAIK.

 

[garyw]

So far the reports are:

• A fireball in the air
• It vanished from radar
• It made sharp turns
• It didn't make any course changes
• There was a distress call
• There was no distress call
• There was a fight on board
• A bomb

So, lots of speculation. At least the authorities know where the debris field is and it's going to take several days to locate the black boxes and find out what actually happened.

 

[Urwumpe]

Also at least 8 civilian ships are on course towards the accident site, according to AIS.

The Greek minister of defense so far stated the following knowledge:

It did not change course before disappearing from secondary radar 15 miles into Egyptian airspace. On military primary radar, it made a sharp 90° turn to the left and a 360° turn to the right, loosing 6700 meters altitude in a few minutes before disappearing from their radar as well.

There are eye witness reports of a fireball, but as usual, it is recommended to wait for debris. The still missing Malaysian aircraft was also reported in various places aflame and not.

---------- Post added at 04:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:47 PM ----------

Debris and life vests have be been found at the accident site.

 

[SolarLiner]

Daily News bulletin of ISIS on their official radio stations makes no mention of the plane.
https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/733304175233269760

 

[Urwumpe]

Not their debris, according to Egypt Air. Back to square one.

 

[steph]

Seeing how it made a seemingly controlled descent and then disappeared at 10.000 ft ....could we actually be looking at some sort of hijack? I mean something along the lines of disabling the transponder and then ground-hugging across the desert to some remote landing location?

 

[Urwumpe]

Seeing how it made a seemingly controlled descent and then disappeared at 10.000 ft ....could we actually be looking at some sort of hijack? I mean something along the lines of disabling the transponder and then ground-hugging across the desert to some remote landing location?

Somebody would have seen it - it is not like there is much in range and everywhere is a military expecting the next world war.

Also, the descent rate is very high for a A320 under primary law.

 

[Ravenous]

Seeing how it made a seemingly controlled descent and then disappeared at 10.000 ft ....could we actually be looking at some sort of hijack?

That doesn't necessarily mean it was in control... If these extreme turns happened while descending very quickly, there may have been some extreme loss of control, spiral dive or breakup due to overspeed. (Not necessarily an explosion is needed to break up an airframe.)

Anyway as long as power was still available to the recorders, this will all be picked up in excruciating detail later. Until then we're guessing (including what I just wrote of course.)