Could Comet C/2013 A1 impact Mars in 2014?

[RGClark]

Actually, I was referring to the Sutters Mill meteor. My understanding (and again, I could be wrong) is that anything over 50,000 MPH is most likely interstellar, or at least has a high likelyhood of being so.

The Leonids move faster. Perhaps in regards to the Sutter's Mill meteor, the highest meteor speed mentioned was in regards to an individual meteor, not a meteoroid stream:

Leonid Meteor Shower Peaks Before Dawn Saturday.
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist Date: 16 November 2012 Time: 07:00 AM ET

And because the Leonids are moving along in their orbit around the sun in a direction opposite to that of Earth, they slam into our atmosphere nearly head-on, resulting in the fastest meteor velocities possible: 45 miles (72 kilometers) per second. Such speeds tend to produce bright meteors, which leave long-lasting streaks or trains in their wake.
http://www.space.com/18510-leonid-meteor-shower-peaks-saturday.html

Bob Clark

 

[garyw]

Actually, I was referring to the Sutters Mill meteor. My understanding (and again, I could be wrong) is that anything over 50,000 MPH is most likely interstellar, or at least has a high likelyhood of being so.

Yes and no. First of all, what is that speed relative to and in which direction?

Note that all Oort cloud comets have an eccentricity of 1 in the heliocentric frame and 0.996 or so in the SSB frame.

Oort cloud objects are very loosely gravitational held by the solar system.

Now, here is where it gets interesting. Some scientists postulate that the Oort cloud extends to 3.16 light years. That's a good way to Proxima Centuri. If Proxima has an Oort cloud of the same side it puts it just outside of a light year from us - exactly the SMa in the SSB frame that some Oort cloud comets come from.

So, could some of these long period comets actually be from the Proxima Centauri Oort cloud?

 

[orb]

NASA JPL: Comet to Make Close Flyby of Red Planet in October 2014:

{...}

Based on data through April 7, 2013, the latest orbital plot places the comet's closest approach to Mars slightly closer than previous estimates, at about 68,000 miles (110,000 kilometers). At the same time, the new data set now significantly reduces the probability the comet will impact the Red Planet, from about 1 in 8,000 to about 1 in 120,000. The latest estimated time for close approach to Mars is about 11:51 a.m. PDT (18:51 UTC) on Oct. 19, 2014. At the time of closest approach, the comet will be on the sunward side of the planet

{...}

Universe Today: New Calculations Effectively Rule Out Comet Impacting Mars in 2014

 

[RisingFury]

Well, it was a long shot. Still, with a very close approach, MRO might capture some interesting shots.

 

[statickid]

Or at least a series of identical shots where a point of light moves across a static background

 

[Rtyh-12]

Supposing it did hit, would the flash of light be visible from Earth? If so, for how long would it be noticeable?

 

[Screamer7]

What is the change that a comet can be an visitor from a nearby star like Alpha Centaurus?
The Oort cloud stretch about a light year or more from the sun, and so maybe that of other nearby star's.

 

[RisingFury]

As far as exchange of comets with another star goes... It's not impossible, it's just very unlikely. Given the great numbers of comets, odds are at least a few might have been exchanged, but if you wanna figure the odds, you better buy a lottery ticket - might have better odds at that

 

[Quick_Nick]

Supposing it did hit, would the flash of light be visible from Earth? If so, for how long would it be noticeable?

The impact (flash) of the SMART-1 satellite into the moon was visible from ground telescopes. And the Shoemaker Levy 9 impact into Jupiter and especially aftermath was visible from satellites. I would guess that an impact with Mars (and I believe this is expected to be a much larger comet than SL9) should be very much visible from Earth satellites, and I would say medium and large ground telescopes. IF it were to impact on the correct side.

 

[Pioneer]

I hope it impacts because I think it could start the process of terraforming Mars.

 

[RisingFury]

I hope it impacts because I think it could start the process of terraforming Mars.

I guess you haven't read the rest of the thread, but it's now clear that it won't impact.

 

[SpaceEagle]

A new asteroid belt between Earth and Mars.

 

[Athena]

Just wondering, in a different scenario, if it hit, would its effects be enough to make Mars at least, form a atmosphere thick enough that the greenhouse effect enough to raise global temperatures to near room temperature? (It'll get stripped off anyway...)

 

[NukeET]

I hope it impacts because I think it could start the process of terraforming Mars.

Hope all you want...the experts say it won't. The Orbiter scenario I've been playing with predicts closest approach of 109,100 km.

The 8 April 2013 JPL 3-sigma solution is the first solution to show that the minimum approach by the comet will miss Mars.[2] As of 8 April 2013, the odds of impact are only 1 in 120,000.[14]

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2013_A1 and http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1#cad

 

[RGClark]

Last weekends meteor over the east coast U.S. was not uncommon according to NASA:

Boulder-Size Asteroid Caused Friday's East Coast Meteor, NASA Says.
By Mike Wall | SPACE.com – Sat, Mar 23, 2013
http://news.yahoo.com/boulder-size-asteroid-caused-fridays-east-coast-meteor-194918370.html

It's estimated about 100 of these meter-sized boulders hit the Earth's atmosphere every year; this one was uncommon in being over a heavily populated area. The fireball over the Bay Area in California in February also was not an uncommonly large one.
However, there may be a characteristic of the east coast meteor that is uncommon, and that is its speed. It's been estimated to have been traveling at perhaps 20 miles per second:

Fiery meteor streaks across Massachusetts’ night sky, seen up and down the East Coast
03/22/2013 11:58 PM


East coast residents marvel at Friday night meteor.
Mar 23, 2013 5:32 PM EDT Updated: Mar 23, 2013 6:03 PM EDT


The distance from Boston to New York is 190 miles. The meteor was seen from Boston to New York. Then fixing the time by video cameras when it appeared over Boston compared to New York would give us an accurate idea of its speed.

IF it really was traveling at 20 miles per second then that would put it in an unusual category since that would put it at the highest speed ever measured for a meteor:

64,000 mph asteroid was fastest on record.
By Brian Dodson
December 30, 2012


Sutter’s Mill Meteor Fastest, Most Diverse Ever.
December 21, 2012 at 04:57 Merryl Azriel
http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/12/21/sutters-mill-meteor-fastest/

A speed of 20 miles per second for the east coast meteor would put it slightly ahead of the Sutter's Mill meteor which was at 64,000 mph, 17.8 miles per second.

NASA is putting up a list of bolides, fireballs on its NEO web page:

Fireball and Bolide Reports.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/

So far it only has the the Chelyabinsk meteor on the list. I think it should also include meteors of size as the east coast and Bay Area meteors, even if ones this size occur a hundred times a year. Such events may still have unusual characteristics that would be uncovered by open dissemination of their physical aspects.

The American Meteor Society has released an analysis of the number of reports made to them by the public of fireballs over the last few years. They conclude that while there has been a definite increase, because of the increasing awareness and the technical tools to report such events, no conclusion can be made about whether this represents a real increase in the number of events:

Fireball Tracking System Analysis.
Analysis of the AMS Citizen Science Based Fireball Tracking System.
http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs/fireball-tracking-system-analysis/


Bob Clark

A program to detect meteor impacts on the Moon saw its largest one in its eight year history on March 17th:

ScienceCasts: Bright Explosion on the Moon.
Published on May 16, 2013
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYloGuUZCFM&"]ScienceCasts: Bright Explosion on the Moon - YouTube[/ame]

The video mentions there were some bright fireballs over Earth the same day so the events are believed related.
This was 5 days before the east coast fireball and such fireball events occur on average twice a week somewhere on Earth, so they are not necessarily connected. Still it is notable this March 17th impact on the Moon was the brightest one they've seen in eight years.

Bob Clark

 

[RGClark]

A 10 meter sized meteor passed within 65,000 miles of Earth on Friday. This was a week after the large asteroid 1998 QE2 passed within a few million miles:

Stealthy, truck-sized asteroid zipped past Earth on Friday night.
By Deborah Netburn
June 8, 2013, 7:00 a.m.
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-asteroid-2013-lr6-20130607,0,3965267.story

This small meteor did not enter within Earth's atmosphere but still it is possible because of 1998 QE2 longer distance, this would result in related small meteors passing further away than the fireball meteors.
A statistical analysis needs to be done to see if large passing asteroids are accompanied by much more closely passing small meteors.


Bob Clark

 

[garyw]

A statistical analysis needs to be done to see if large passing asteroids are accompanied by much more closely passing small meteors.

Why would they be? The gravity pull of the sun and jupiter would very soon perturb them into their own orbits.

 

[RGClark]

Fiercest meteor shower on record to hit Mars via comet.
17:07 06 December 2013 by Lisa Grossman

Comet ISON's visit to Earth was a bit of a disappointment – but next year Mars is getting a cometary visitor that looks like it will be anything but. Calculations suggest that the Red Planet's "comet of the century" will come closer to its surface than any comet has come to Earth's in recorded history – causing a meteor shower so epic that it may pose a danger to the spacecraft that orbit Mars.
Comet C/2013 A1, also known as comet Siding Spring after the observatory in New South Wales, Australia, where it was discovered, is due to cross Mars's orbit on 19 October 2014.
Early estimates of its path made it look as though the comet could smack into the Red Planet.
A more recent study rules out a collision – but only just – and raises the alarm for the fleet of orbiters overhead.
http://www.newscientist.com/article...r-shower-on-record-to-hit-mars-via-comet.html

Bob Clark

 

[Castor]

Someone should have added this earlier, but anyway I'll take the plunge:

Comet C/2013 A1 will pass extremely close to Mars on 19 October 2014 at 18:30 UTC. Initial observations by Leonid Elenin on 27 February 2013, suggested that it might pass 0.000276 AU (41,300 km; 25,700 mi) from the center of Mars. With an observation arc of 493 days, the nominal pass is 0.00090 AU (135,000 km; 84,000 mi) from the center-point of Mars and the uncertainty region shows that it will not come closer than 0.00087 AU (130,000 km; 81,000 mi). For comparison, Mars's outer moon Deimos orbits 0.00016 AU (24,000 km; 15,000 mi) from the planet. Due to the uncertainty region, there is a small possibility that it will pass Mars as far away as 0.00093 AU (139,000 km; 86,000 mi). It will pass Mars at a relative velocity of 56 km/s (35 mi/s).

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Well, a part of me had been hoping for a hit so that we could see what it was like... But this is still pretty cool.