Dr. Stuhlinger's letter

[thomasantony]

True. There is only so much the government can do. I have some hope in the private sector. Commercial gain, unlike science, IS after all a very good motivator to spend money ..

It would take only a small step. Once we have cheap access to LEO, we will really start seeing interplanetary trips taking off. Something like a space elevator will go a long way. In fact there is already a group of companies working on building one:

http://www.liftport.com/

Of course whether they do or do not achieve it is another thing. But just think what all can be achieved by lifting a full conventional rocket system ( modified for space-launch of course) directly to GEO through the elevator. Think of the amount of stuff that could be sent almost anywhere in the solar system.

Many private companies with rather deep pockets have started showing interest in space sector. Be it sub-orbital space tourism only, it will expand sooner or later into orbital systems and beyond. Of course I don't see manned missions to Titan in any recent period ( I would be really happy if it did though ) , but Moon and Mars are certainly viable. There is already a company planning to do circumlunar tourism using a modified Soyuz capsule. Richard Branson recently registered the business name "Virgin Interplanetary", in case space travel becomes commercially viable. People like him take calculated risks which usually pays off.

When the price comes down, scientists and scientific organizations will naturally go and start doing their thing.

I do have some confidence in our own national space programme which has done a lot on a comparatively low budget. There seems to be some kind of unofficial "Space Race" in Asia right now. China has already had a manned mission. South Korea of course sent one in soyuz a two weeks ago. We ourselves are sending a Lunar probe and have solid plans for a crewed flight by 2015 and a possible moon landing in 2020-2025. There is good support for the space program in India even though there are also a lot of people who say we should be spending money on poverty and other such problems.

So you see, there is still a lot of hope for manned spaceflight and saying that we can do everything we need with robots is pointless. Of course, right now, robots is the what we can do due to the circumstances, but that doesn't mean we should forever depend on them and not try to get there ourselves.

 

[Belisarius]

Don't bank on a space elevator, the technical problems are formidable. But I agree with you entirely that once there is a private platform in LEO the possibilities become very interesting. That's why the one-way-only mission to Mars fascinates me - it could actually be done by a private outfit 20 years or so from now.

Regarding India, you're absolutely right that your country has made rapid advances and is shaping up to be one of the great commercial space powers of the 21st century. But when it comes to manned missions, don't forget that you are a democracy and the same restrictions apply - people will start whining that astronauts are wasting money that could be spent on hospitals (and they may be right, I don't know).

China doesn't have that restriction - people there aren't allowed to whine. Therefore if the government decides that they must have a base on the Moon, the only limits will be technical. If the technical problems can be overcome, they will get to wherever they want - no public reluctance, no worries about safety, no dissent from the official dogma. Heroism will be back in style.

If there is really a space race in Asia, no doubt who will win it. Though I wish India good luck in carrying the torch for democracy, I wouldn't bet money on them to get to Mars before China. As for the decadent western democracies - no hope whatsoever. Private enterprise seems to be the only serious opposition to the totalitarianism of the PRC.