Discussion Earth: Space colonization a myth - ESA director.

[RGClark]

Jean-Jacques Dordain, the outgoing head of the ESA, favors sending manned expeditions to Mars but believes colonization of Mars or other planets is impossible:

Earth: Space colonization a myth - ESA director.
December 26, 2014 07:00
http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/217739-nasa-europe-space-agency/

Bob Clark

 

[Urwumpe]

Aw... just another Russian Truth video.

 

[Hielor]

It's true. It's absolutely impossible for people to live outside Europe. Overseas colonies could never be successful.

Wait, what?

 

[Pipcard]

It's true. It's absolutely impossible for people to live outside Europe. Overseas colonies could never be successful.

Wait, what?

The issue wih that analogy is that the Americas had lots of fertile land and food, a breathable atmosphere, and people that were already there. Unlike Mars. If the Americas were a barren wasteland, then the analogy would be more accurate.

I don't believe space colonization is impossible, but it won't be like the colonization of lands on Earth hundreds of years ago.

 

[Hlynkacg]

It's true. It's absolutely impossible for people to live outside Europe. Overseas colonies could never be successful.

Even Voyaging to the new world would require massive innovations in ship building technology. The chances of a modern Caravel or Galleon surviving the journey are less than nil.

Besides, if there was intelligent life in the far west it would have contacted us by now.

 

[RisingFury]

Besides, if there was intelligent life in the far west it would have contacted us by now.

Oh, we Europeans know for sure that there's life in the far west. Jury's still out on the 'intelligent' part :lol::lol:

 

[Urwumpe]

Oh, we Europeans know for sure that there's life in the far west. Jury's still out on the 'intelligent' part :lol::lol:

Like always, when we Europeans know that something is out there, we know it because we have put it there. Regardless if it is life in the west or chemical weapons in Iraq :lol:

 

[C3PO]

Oh, we Europeans know for sure that there's life in the far west. Jury's still out on the 'intelligent' part :lol::lol:

At least common sense is a lot less common than the name suggests.
:leaving:

 

[fsci123]

Space colonization is possible but I doubt we will have billions of people living off world within the next 250 years. The biggest barrier to space colonization isn't biology, it's economics.

 

[Urwumpe]

Space colonization is possible but I doubt we will have billions of people living off world within the next 250 years. The biggest barrier to space colonization isn't biology, it's economics.

Remember the most important assertion there: "As we know it"

Yes, under the current knowledge, and the knowledge of what is possible within the next 10 years, it won't happen soon. But what if we discover something revolutionary that makes Mars interesting in five years? In 20 years, we could really have precursor missions already. In 30 years, we might have the first commercial ventures there. Maybe highly automated. But still, it might be more economic to have human engineers and human technicians available, than replacing the robots and machines by sending them to Mars from Earth. And so on... humans need services, so more humans will eventually come and offer such services.

We simply should not assume things to be impossible, because they are impossible for us now. We should also assume things to be unlikely, because we have not even a clue yet, how such things should be achieved. A single discovery in engineering, despite not being based on revolutionary discoveries in physics, can change everything.

 

[Andy44]

It's not impossible, but it is improbable.

Let me know when people start colonizing Antarctica or the top of Mt. Everest, first. Both places are far more hospitable, easy to reach, and less expensive to live at than Mars is.

 

[fsci123]

Remember the most important assertion there: "As we know it"

Yes, under the current knowledge, and the knowledge of what is possible within the next 10 years, it won't happen soon. But what if we discover something revolutionary that makes Mars interesting in five years? In 20 years, we could really have precursor missions already. In 30 years, we might have the first commercial ventures there. Maybe highly automated. But still, it might be more economic to have human engineers and human technicians available, than replacing the robots and machines by sending them to Mars from Earth. And so on... humans need services, so more humans will eventually come and offer such services.

We simply should not assume things to be impossible, because they are impossible for us now. We should also assume things to be unlikely, because we have not even a clue yet, how such things should be achieved. A single discovery in engineering, despite not being based on revolutionary discoveries in physics, can change everything.

Yeah...Uhh... I forgot to put a footnote saying that economics is a barrier to widespread colonization so long as there is no new paradigm changing discovery(alien ruins) or technological breakthrough(ant-gravity, space elevators, cryosleep, etc).

There are very few resources which exist in space that can't be found here on earth or substituted.

Plus due to economics, locations requiring a low delta v and short travel time would be cheaper to access than places with high delta v and long travel time. Thus, colonization would probably favor locations like the moon, Leo, NEAs, and the asteroid belt instead of cis-Jupiter space, mars, or Neptune.

It's good to remember that Mars and Jupiters moons will probably have infrastructure and colonies. But these colonies would be small and dependent on tourism and will probably have low to zero or even negative growth rates.

 

[Hielor]

It's not impossible, but it is improbable.

Let me know when people start colonizing Antarctica or the top of Mt. Everest, first. Both places are far more hospitable, easy to reach, and less expensive to live at than Mars is.

Technically, people live in Antarctica for long periods of time...

 

[Donamy]

Or under the ocean.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

Humans multiply faster than a colony ship could haul people away. I'd certainly like to visit Mars, even be part of a long-term expedition. But staying there is out of the question.

 

[Donamy]

Just going there, would be like a prison sentence. And then back.

 

[Kyle]

Just going there, would be like a prison sentence. And then back.

Not when everyone's driving solar powered Tesla's!

 

[Quick_Nick]

Not when everyone's driving solar powered Tesla's!

Armageddon 2: the roughnecks go to Mars!

Edit: I missed the word "when" in the quote...

 

[Urwumpe]

Let me know when people start colonizing Antarctica or the top of Mt. Everest, first. Both places are far more hospitable, easy to reach, and less expensive to live at than Mars is.

Mt Everest or even the much more dangerous Nanga Parbat are very crowded places already - likely only touristic reasons prevent them from building a hotel on top of it. about 1000 people reach its peak every year, magnitudes more try to climb it (often despite being unfit for it)

And Antartica is regulated by the Antarctic Treaty System, limiting it to scientific uses - Still you have already about 5000 people in permanent settlements during the summer (about 1000 during the winter). The first child in Antarctica was born in 1913 already.

Having 1000 astronauts on Mars would already be hard to solve as engineer at the current knowledge, don't you agree? And still... we can imagine it, and we can even successfully simulate such settlements.

 

[C3PO]

In my mind a colony is a place you go to spend the rest of your life, unless you change your mind and move somewhere else. When people (today) go to places like Antarctica or the ISS for long period, they've already planned the trip back. Fishing trips to the Barents sea used to last 7-9 months but I wouldn't call them colonies.

A colony in that sense on Mars will not happen for quite some time. We need a major breakthrough in space travel and/or degraded living conditions on Earth to make a leap like that. Since we don't know when breakthroughs will happen, setting a timeframe for the first colony on Mars is nonsensical.

PS: I feel sad for the people that watch this video and "Space colonies are a myth" is the main thing that stuck with them.