Launch News (Failure) Phobos-Grunt and YingHuo-1 atop Zenit-2 on November 8/9, 2011

[SiberianTiger]

http://ria.ru/science/20120111/536943029.html

13:29 11/01/2012
Moscow, Jan 11 - RIA Novosti, Alexander Kovalyov. An official conclusion on discovery of the abnormal situation with Phobos-Grunt intreplanetary probe will be presented on January, 26th, told RIA Novosti head of the interdepartmental commission of Roscomos on analysis of Phobos-Grunt spacecraft's flight, former head of Rosaviacosmos (precursor to Roscomos) agency Yuri Koptev, who is presently charged with a post of chairman in Rostechnology corp.

At present moment, the latest estimate of Phobos-Grunt's reentry time is:
2012 Jan 15, 13:18 ± 36 hours, according to Roscosmos (source)

 

[N_Molson]

I'm not buying this satellite agression thing, especially when one quote sums it all :

Mr. Popovkin also suggested that equipment on the spacecraft may have broken down while the vehicle was stored on the ground, waiting for the time when Earth and Mars would be in the right places in their orbits for the mission to proceed, something that happens only every two years. “If we had not sent it to Mars in 2011, we would have had to throw it away,” he said of the craft.

 

[SiberianTiger]

2012 Jan 16, 02:36 ± 18 hrs, according to Aerospace CORDS (source)

 

[SiberianTiger]

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Space_Debris/SEMJS2KX3XG_0.html

ESA coordinates international satellite reentry campaign

12 January 2012
An international campaign to assess the imminent atmospheric reentry of Russia's Phobos–Grunt Mars craft is being coordinated by experts in ESA's Space Debris Office. Participants include NASA and Roscosmos as part of the 12-member Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee.

ESA experts are working with international partners in a coordinated prediction campaign focused on Phobos–Grunt, a Russian Mars mission that is expected to largely burn up in Earth's atmosphere in the next few days.

...

Large number of uncertainties affect reentry

"Right now, due to the large number of uncertainties in the orbit and space environment affecting the satellite, the indications are that Phobos-Grunt could reenter between 13 and 17 January, between 51.4°N and 51.4°S," says Prof. Heiner Klinkrad, Head of ESA's Space Debris Office.

He adds that this window will shorten as we approach reentry.

"Analyses by Roscosmos and NASA indicate that the fuel tanks, filled with unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine – referred to as UDMH – will burst above 100 km altitude, release the propellant and largely demise thereafter."

"This, combined with a relatively low dry mass of just 2.5 tonnes, means that Phobos–Grunt is not considered to be a high-risk reentry object."

"Roscosmos expects that at most, some 20 to 30 fragments may reach Earth's surface, with a total mass of less than 200 kg."

Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Fraunhofer Radar Imager has taken a picture of Phobos-Grunt in orbit (the article is in German):

http://www.pro-physik.de/details/news/1438679/Phobos-Grunt_Ruecksturz_zur_Erde.html

 

[orb]

Between 15th and 16th with central point at 16:12 MSK on January 15, according to Roscosmos.

Today's parameters:

• Apogee: 193.9 km
• Perigee: 163.5 km
• Inclination: 51.45 degrees.
• Orbital period: 87.9 min.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Between 15th and 16th with central point at 16:12 MSK on January 15, according to Roscosmos.

Media have already interpreted this map as "Phobos-Grunt will fall on Madagascar!" :facepalm:

 

[orb]

Media have already interpreted this map as "Phobos-Grunt will fall on Madagascar!" :facepalm:

:rofl:

Madagascar:
The Fall of Russian Probe

 

[PhantomCruiser]

I like to move it-move it...

But of course it wouldn't be the media if they didn't sensationalize every single thing available for them to print, right?

 

[SiberianTiger]

Between 15th and 16th with central point at 20:22 MSK on January 15, according to Roscosmos.

Click this bar to view the full image.

Today's parameters:

• Apogee: 185.6 km
• Perigee: 157.8 km
• Inclination: 51.44 degrees.
• Orbital period: 87.76 min.

Switching the current tune from "I like to move it - move it" to "Don't cry for me, Argentina".

 

[orb]

The Planetary Society Blog: Phobos-Grunt's upcoming demise: what we know and what we don't

Aviation Week: Conflicting Predictions for Phobos-Grunt

 

[Screamer7]

What struck me on these maps is than only a small part of southern Russia is in the risk area.

 

[orb]

The Planetary Society - Press Release: Final Fate of the Planetary Society's Phobos LIFE Biomodule

 

[SiberianTiger]

What struck me on these maps is than only a small part of southern Russia is in the risk area.

Which is quite natural, given the parking orbit's inclination is the about 51.5 degrees, most energy saving for Baikonur launches.

 

[Urwumpe]

Which is quite natural, given the parking orbit's inclination is the about 51.5 degrees, most energy saving for Baikonur launches.

That would be 42° inclination. 51.6° is better because it offers the best coverage by ground stations during launch and the first orbits.

 

[Notebook]

BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16491457

N.

 

[N_Molson]

Which is quite natural, given the parking orbit's inclination is the about 51.5 degrees, most energy saving for Baikonur launches.

Ideally, for an interplanetary launch, the parking orbit should fit the ecliptic plane as close as possible (which would require insane amounts of propellant from Baikonur, so an "en route" set of corrections is prefered).

 

[SiberianTiger]

That would be 42° inclination. 51.6° is better because it offers the best coverage by ground stations during launch and the first orbits.

Not possible without either one of:

1. Signing treaty with China about dropping our junk at their territory.
2. Making a completely fly-back launcher.
3. Making a dogleg flight (how's about energy saving in that case?...)
4. Considering a new approach to definitions of state borders.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Between 15th and 16th with central point at 21:51 MSK on January 15, according to Roscosmos.

Today's parameters:

• Apogee: 174.2 km
• Perigee: 149.7 km
• Inclination: 51.44 degrees.
• Orbital period: 87.57 min.

Meanwhile, orbit of Cosmos-2176 (Oko class spacecraft) launched January 24, 1992 has decayed so much that it's likely to reenter about the same day also somehere in Southern hemisphere.

1 21847U 92003A   12014.54678450  .73916150  17603-6  11556-2 0  9088
2 21847 062.0664 036.7879 3100024 252.5214 272.0501 09.59667664146702

 

[orb]

The last estimate for reentry by Roscosmos is between 18:36 MSK on 15th [14:36 UTC] and 02:24 MSK on 16th [22:24 UTC on 15th] (somewhere on the blue line on image below).

Parameters as of 20:30 MSK yesterday:

• apogee - 167.1 km
• perigee - 144.6 km
• inclination - 51.43 degrees.
• period - 87.45 min.

RIA Novosti: Reports vary about failed Russian Mars probe’s reentry time

{...}

According to the latest report from the U.S. Strategic Command, the failed probe would hit Earth's atmosphere between 17:26 Moscow time Sunday [13:26] and 03:02 Moscow time Monday [23:02 Sunday GMT]. It puts the altitude at between 138.1 km at perigee and 160.2 km at apogee.

Rene Pischel, the head of the Moscow office of the European Space Agency (ESA), said the European agency’s specialists expect the reentry at 22:44 Moscow time on Sunday [18:24 GMT], give or take six hours.

German amateur astronomer Harro Zimmer expects the reentry to take place at 21:22 Moscow time [17:22 GMT] on Sunday, give or take 90 minutes. His calculations put the reentry location at somewhere over the Pacific Ocean, northeast of Indonesia.

{...}

SPACE.com: Crash of Falling Russian Spacecraft Imminent, Experts Say