Details about Russia’s ill-fated Phobos-Grunt continue to leak out, and they paint an ugly portrait of the state of the nation’s planetary program. Consider this
hair-raising account from RussianSpaceWeb.com’s Anatoly Zak of repair work done about five weeks prior to the Nov. 9 launch:
As it transpired, engineers found that the polarity for the steering control of the main engine had been mistakenly switched over in the flight control software of the main BKU computer. Nobody knew how such a major problem could’ve been missed during supposedly thorough certification tests in Moscow. Initially, managers decided to limit corrective actions to re-soldering of respective cables. As a result, six cables had to be reconnected on a spacecraft fully loaded with toxic and explosive propellants. Similar attempts to do electric repairs on the fueled vehicle led to the mass loss of life in Baikonur in the aftermath of the infamous Nedelin disaster in 1960. [Emphasis added]
Good God! Not only did they risk blowing themselves into orbit, it turns out that their heroics didn’t really fix anything.
However, after these repairs, it had become clear that all control signals from multiple cables had been channeled to the same driving mechanism. This mistake could not be fixed by re-routing cables, instead requiring complex changes in the flight control software. Last updates to the programming software had to be added right at the launch site, leaving no time for a new round of tests. The incident was reported to the head of the Russian space agency, Vladimir Popovkin.
No wonder why the spacecraft is stuck in Earth orbit. It was a total POS. Even after its launch had been delayed two years so they could fix all the problems with it.
Zak has a full account of the Phobos-Grunt program from conception through today on his website. It’s worth a read. The narrative makes clear that decades of decay have left the Russian planetary program in shambles. Phobos-Grunt was ill-conceived, poorly managed and badly executed at every stage. And there appear to be deep, structural problems that a
few selective prosecutions will not solve.
So, why should anyone outside of Russia care? Well, there was a tri-lateral meeting on Wednesday between NASA, ESA and Roscosmos about bringing the Russians into the cash-strapped American and European effort to explore Mars. Initially, participation has been focused on Russia providing a rocket for a 2016 mission that NASA can’t afford to provide. But, the cooperation could go far beyond hitching a ride to the Red Planet.
Lou Friedman thinks it would be a
great idea to bring Russia in as a partner. I’m not so sure. Putting the Russians in the critical path of any future Mars missions just doesn’t appear wise given their recent problems and 50 years of failed missions to the Red Planet. Who would want to bring that experience into a highly successful exploration effort? It’s just bad karma.
When the shuttle-Mir program was conceived in 1992, the Russians had a viable (if crumbling) human spaceflight program. The Americans and Russians brought complementary strengths to the collaboration. It helped keep the Russian program going. And the experience gained turned out to be essential to the later development of International Space Station. It was a true win-win situation.
I’m not sure there’s a similar upside here given the decades long decay in the Russian planetary program. The last successful missions they launched to any planet were the Vega probes to Venus in 1984. What can they offer today other than a launch vehicle?
So, let’s talk about that. What if Russia’s Mars participation was limited to a rocket? That might work. But, the Russians have had five launch failures just in the past year. Admittedly, a lot can happen in five years, the Russians could get their groove back. But, why not just find the money for an Atlas V launch? Why take the extra risk in an already risky endeavor?
It’s bad enough that all the station partners are relying on a crumbling Roscosmos for crew transportation to the space station. And that the U.S. Congress is underfunding the commercial crew program designed to alleviate that dependency. I worry that bringing Roscosmos into our Mars program given the state it is in would drag down our efforts and provide little in return.
