Heavy fighting in South Ossetia.

[ar81]

It does look like Russia has proven a point to its neighbors(Not just Georgia): You are alone, no one else will help you. Especially not the West, their promises are empty.

I feel like my country has betrayed a friend through inaction.:dry:

...unless Georgia joins NATO...

 

[Eagle]

...unless Georgia joins NATO...

Won't happen. Just watch. The discussion regarding Georgia entering NATO will be buried and forgotten.

 

[ar81]

Won't happen. Just watch. The discussion regarding Georgia entering NATO will be buried and forgotten.

Certainly if NATO refuses, they would lose a strategic point.
And it is bad to have enemies in borderline countries.
It is just a matter of time before it becomes a problem.
Venezuela was a minor power in America, today things changed...
USA now relies on Venezuela for oil.

So having enemies you do not need is a risky bet.
If I was politician I would not have done what Russia did.
But that's just me.

 

[Urwumpe]

Venezuela was a minor power in America, today things changed...
USA now relies on Venezuela for oil.

They have more important sources of oil, as Venezuela. The oil exports to the USA get just blown up by Venezuela for political reasons. They depend more on the USA, than the other way around.

The USA import 13,150,000 barrel of oil every day, while Venezuela exports only 2,203,000 barrel of oil every day. Totally, only 15% of the US oil consumed is from Venezuela.

 

[SiberianTiger]

The latest reports:

Detachments of the 58th Russian Army are salvaging abandoned weapons, ammunition stores and vehicles near Gori and by non-confirmed reports, in other locations of Georgia.

I the port of Poti, three Georgian coast patrol boats got demolished by Russian troops while berthed (two more reportedly were sunk in engagements in open sea in the past days). This pretty much makes up for the entire Georgian navy.

Not trusting disarmament to Georgians?


-----Posted Added-----

Won't happen. Just watch. The discussion regarding Georgia entering NATO will be buried and forgotten.

Sounds like it was the objective.

 

[Ghostrider]

Georgia is not a strategic point as far as NATO is concerned. As for enemies in borderline countries, Georgia is hardly a worry in the Kremlin's eye when they have China to contend with. Treaties notwithstanding, China and Russia harbor no love for each other. Siberia, with its vast natural resources, could well become contended ground in the near future.

As for Venezuela, do you really think they could cut the oil flow to the US and live to tell the tale?

 

[Urwumpe]

Sounds like Russia is just finishing the job. But I doubt, it will bring them a victory by pillaging Georgia. I think, what they are doing now, will only polarize the region even more. Some sort of the modern version of the treaty of Versailles - and we remember how this treaty ended. With enough bad blood for many war crimes.

What about founding a Black Sea Treaty Organization? Alone, the countries could not stand against Russia and such school yard bully tactics by Russia will not improve the situation at all. But what if Georgia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and maybe Turkey join for a political alliance against Russian threats? While still no problem which the Russian Army couldn't deal with, it would make it much more expensive for Russia...

 

[Notebook]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7559252.stm

US forces to deliver Georgia aid

Has the US any naval force in the Black Sea?

N.

 

[Urwumpe]

Has the US any naval force in the Black Sea?

No, but they are active in the Mediterranean Sea, which is only a short trip away.

But I would not concentrate on Georgia too much... maybe it is a good idea to also give Ukraine a small head-up.

EDIT:
http://www.navyshipnews.com/2008/02/uss-san-jacinto-in-black-sea.html

OK, I was wrong - they are also there. Isn't there a Google Maps page which shows the rough deployment of the Navies in the world?

 

[n122vu]

Are you still regarding the West a whole? What you describe is Europe's problem. The biggest America's concern is China. What do you think will happen once they decide to reclaim Taiwan?

I have to agree with you that China is (or should be, at least), the biggest military concern for the US. I can't speak on their military technology, as I am uneducated on their current arsenal, but they definitely have the largest force in terms of numbers. Last estimate I heard put them with at least a 3:1 ratio to the US in troop numbers. This was before the Clinton administration reduced our military size in the early nineties, and I have not seen any figures lately regarding troop size/combat-readiness. At any rate, the point I am getting at is it would bode well for the U.S. to stay on China's good side as long as possible, not just from a military standpoint, but an economic one as well.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Georgia is hardly a worry in the Kremlin's eye when they have China to contend with. Treaties notwithstanding, China and Russia harbor no love for each other. Siberia, with its vast natural resources, could well become contended ground in the near future.

That's indeed, but it's now written in the Russian Military Doctrine that any direct invasion of a foreign army may be met with nuclear strike on the invader's homeland. There are no more self-limitations on the scale of the stike or obligations not to use atomic weapons first.

 

[DanP]

What about founding a Black Sea Treaty Organization? Alone, the countries could not stand against Russia and such school yard bully tactics by Russia will not improve the situation at all. But what if Georgia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and maybe Turkey join for a political alliance against Russian threats? While still no problem which the Russian Army couldn't deal with, it would make it much more expensive for Russia...

Turkey? I certainly hope not, it's a member of NATO, causing the whole thing to blow up WWI-style on the first sign of conflict with Russia.

I think an alliance of former members of the Soviet block in Eastern Europe and around the Black Sea will be a good move. However, how successful such an alliance will be in ensuring the security and independence of its members is anyone's guess, especially after such a demonstration of determination by the Russian. That will still be up to western interests and resolution. The members of such an alliance will have much more leverage together, and just may encourage a more determined reaction by the west in a future conflict. The Polish President sure did sound brave when he spoke at the rally earlier...

Still, at least in the short run, it seems that Russia made the most for itself out of this conflict.

 

[ar81]

As for Venezuela, do you really think they could cut the oil flow to the US and live to tell the tale?

Such an action against Venezuela could bring oil prices up and ruin USA. Venezuela does not need to counterattack. Oil market would do.

Politics is a theatrical thing. Nicaraguan president signed CAFTA and supports Venezuela.
USA is rival of USA, but borrowed money from them to pay the war.
I do not take the words of politicians too seriously.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Sounds like Russia is just finishing the job. But I doubt, it will bring them a victory by pillaging Georgia. I think, what they are doing now, will only polarize the region even more. Some sort of the modern version of the treaty of Versailles - and we remember how this treaty ended. With enough bad blood for many war crimes.

There is a difference between Germany in 30's and Georgia now. Germany was capable of producing modern military hardware, and very much so - while Georgia, on the contrary, is not. It is a poorest country of the ex-USSR, that has been living through ethnic conflicts, power struggle and civil war all that time. One would have to invest whole lots of $$$ in Mr. Saakashvili's rearmament, and the question is, for what's good? The army of Georgia hasn't proven to be a formidable force after all training they received, as it turned out.

 

[Urwumpe]

Such an action against Venezuela could bring oil prices up and ruin USA. Venezuela does not need to counterattack. Oil market would do.

You have no idea how much punishment the oil market can take. Any war against Iraq hit a far larger exporter of oil as Venezuela, with Saddam using scorched Earth tactics to increase the damage. Guess what, it did not harm the USA more than it harmed Iraq. No oil, no money, no weapons.

When Venezuela stops exporting oil, it harms itself. The USA only gets 15% from Venezuela. Guess how many countries will be happy getting a share of these 15% for their own profits? It would maybe create a short price spike for a week, before all oil is flowing into the USA again like planned.

Venezuela instead would loose a lot of money which it badly needs now. Oil not only runs the military, but also keeps the population calm. If Venezuela tries to export the oil to Europe, it will reach the USA again. A small increase in Oil prices in the USA, more money for Europe. But still no reason against the USA "keeping the oil flowing". Securing the oil fields of Venezuela is a simple action, and even politically not too hard. The districts of Venezuela, which have oil, are ruled by strong opponents of Chavez. The USA could practically do the same as Russia in Georgia:

1. Support separatists.
2. Become peace keeper
3. Fight any attempts to reclaim the region.


-----Posted Added-----

There is a difference between Germany in 30's and Georgia now. Germany was capable of producing modern military hardware, and very much so - while Georgia, on the contrary, is not. It is a poorest country of the ex-USSR, that has been living through ethnic conflicts, power struggle and civil war all that time. One would have to invest whole lots of $$$ in Mr. Saakashvili's rearmament, and the question is, for what's good? The army of Georgia hasn't proven to be a formidable force after all training they received, as it turned out.

While you are right on the situation for Georgia, you underestimate their performance - it was enough for making the Russian actions painful enough, if the number of losses you provided are accurate. Georgia lost more, but that was never a question for them against Russia. They expected that - and the last independent news from Georgia sound like most Georgians also think that and celebrate still being there.

If South Ossetia does not prove itself worth of the action, no Gleichschaltung of the Russian media will keep civilians from questioning the war, which killed their sons. "For what are we fighting for", will be the question. Georgia has it simpler, they can claim they fight for their territory.

South Ossetia does not have anything of value, not even touristic sights (other than core Georgia or Abkhazia). Recognizing the government of South Ossetia is also something, Russia will not do. It would make North Ossetia rebel for joining South Ossetia. Russia profits only as long, as South-Ossetia only stays a de-facto state - a destabilizing moment. Any form of stability is bad for Russia as it destabilizes actually itself.

It is simpler with Abkhazia.

 

[n122vu]

I was wondering when this would come up. Been pondering this possibility myself the last couple of days.

Russian invasion of Georgia jeopardizes ISS access

Hopefully the situation will be resolved before this becomes an actual issue, if it isn't already.

 

[Eagle]

I was wondering when this would come up. Been pondering this possibility myself the last couple of days.

Russian invasion of Georgia jeopardizes ISS access

Hopefully the situation will be resolved before this becomes an actual issue, if it isn't already.

Sounds like an excuse to build a manned capsule for the ATV. :hmm:

 

[SiberianTiger]

I feel like my country has betrayed a friend through inaction.:dry:

I believe this is intended too: this feeling mirrors the feelings of many Russians about punishment Serbia in 1999. But, there is a bright side for USA here: you can now deliver humanitarian help to Georgia and thus step one stair higher on the ladder of morality in the eyes of the world.

 

[adamb193]

I believe this is intended too: this feeling mirrors the feelings of many Russians about punishment Serbia in 1999. But, there is a bright side for USA here: you can now deliver humanitarian help to Georgia and thus step one stair higher on the ladder of morality in the eyes of the world.

Yes Fox was saying how horribal that the Russians were fighting a war for oil. I found that slightly ironic.

 

[GregBurch]

Are you still regarding the West a whole? What you describe is Europe's problem.

There is still a glimmer of "the West," but it is swiftly being extinguished. I would say the Anglosphere, but it seems impossible to extricate England from Europe.

At any rate, the societies that I identify as "my civilization" are utterly dependent on imported hydrocarbons for their survival, and the money they are spending for this is funding interests that are inimical to them. All of which is a problem that can be solved. But we seem to lack the ability to do it. Why this is is one of the things I spend a lot of time thinking about these days.

The biggest America's concern is China. What do you think will happen once they decide to reclaim Taiwan?

The window for a peaceful reunification of "the two Chinas" is still quite wide open. China would not pursue a military "solution" to this problem except as a last resort. And, even with the greatly increased spending on military hardware and institutional modernization they've undertaken over the last ten years, they are still a good long way from anything like an assured victory in a contested cross-straits invasion. And they know that doing so would put everything they've accomplished in the last thirty years at risk, because the economic fallout of such a campaign would cause severe shock to the domestic political and social situation, which is something the Party avoids as a first priority now.