News Is James Cameron launching an asteroid mining company? (Planetary Resources thread)

The issue is, of course, when you start bringing back THAT many rare materials, the value can and will plummet.
 
Yes, but even if their value plummets, an abundance of otherwise rare and expensive materials would open up possibilities in industry and technological developments that are hampered by those very issues.
 
What would happen to the market if off-world rare metals would get imported strikes me as a quite interesting thought experiment, really. One I'm unluckily qualified to conduct, given my not very educated background.

I mean, sure, the first reaction is that prices will go down after the first boatload. But you might still be able to make a nice return with that first shipment (depending on several factors). Afterwards, profits might be questionable.

But what would actually happen then? If all off-world operations stop, the market will go back to normal sooner or later. And if the first load turned sufficient profit, you can bet that someone will pull the same stunt again once prices are up. After all, it's a proven method by now, making it a lot easier to sell to investors, also making it cheaper with a lot of know-how now being available and a lot of technology already developed. If it gets done once, and it brings money, it will be done again. I can't imagine that the market would fall into a perpetual cycle of high and low prices every few decades. The market would have to change, I just have no idea in what way.
 
I don't care for James Cameron, his politics or his (recent) movies, or for that matter how he treated Linda Hamilton, but by the gods if this is a serious venture I will go out and buy the deluxe collector's edition of Avatar.

If, on the other hand, this is a PR stunt, I will never set foot in the theater for another of his productions, nor purchase or rent the DVD. Which, come to think of it, I wasn't going to do anyway.

So I guess this is a no fail plan of his, as far as my vote goes....
 
If they locate a convenient asteorid rich in platinum group metals then it may return some profit. For example rhodium costs ~80 000 $/kg, platinum ~50 000 $/kg, gold ~40 000 $/kg. Bring back few dozen tons and you could earn several billion. Big question is would it be enough to pay for the mining operation and how much metals could be added to market without crashing it.
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Depends on how much the mining operation costs to develop and operate, which is a huge variable. Considering that nothing quite like it has ever been done before, odds are it won't be cheap, at least to start with. What is the kind of concentration of something like rhodium or platinum in an asteroid? How much work do you have to do to extract it?

Maybe use leftover less valuable metals like iron and aluminium to construct a solar power sattelites (at least the low tech parts and bring only expensive high end components from Earth)
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Cost of in-space infrastructure outweighs the launch cost of bringing that extra mass from Earth.

Suppose they could construct 1 GW solar power sattelite and sell the power for 0,1 $/kwh, that would earn ~800 million $ per year.
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Yes, but the critical question: how much does it cost to build and maintain the power satellite in the first place?

Maybe also provide refueling an repair services to companies owning comercial sattelites to extend their lifetime.
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There are people working on that, but that doesn't seem to fit into the scope of what people on the internet are wildly theorising that this venture will be about. Who knows, maybe they'll be customers of those developing robotic refuelling vehicles...

Yes, but even if their value plummets, an abundance of otherwise rare and expensive materials would open up possibilities in industry and technological developments that are hampered by those very issues.
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But if you want to make money by mining asteroids, you're going to make it by selling whatever you mine, not enriching technology development. The fields you'd affect are just so wide-ranging and taken up by so many different companies in so many different parts of the world that you couldn't possibly profit off of a considerable amount of it.

Of course if profit isn't the (only) goal, the picture changes...
 
T.Neo said:
But if you want to make money by mining asteroids, you're going to make it by selling whatever you mine, not enriching technology development. The fields you'd affect are just so wide-ranging and taken up by so many different companies in so many different parts of the world that you couldn't possibly profit off of a considerable amount of it.
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IANAE, but if you can provide rare elements at a more affordable price you will end up with a lot of customers because the moment you make those materials available, the industry starts using them a lot more and the demand increases. You also end up breaking some Earth-bound monopolies and making your own - which is far harder to break if you have a head-start on technology and know-how. I mean, they can nationalize your mine on Earth but try doing that with your space-bound operation...
 
FADEC said:
Or a change of availability of resources.

Either way the future becomes as interesting as almost never before. And I expect to still be around in 60 years from now. I'm curious how the world is going to look like...
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Interesting site The Age of Asteroid Mining.

Saw this ref. linked there:

An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile.
Chi-Jen Yang
Energy Policy.
Volume 37, Issue 5, May 2009, Pages 1805-1808
"Abstract
The global demand for platinum has consistently outgrown supply in the past decade. This trend likely will continue and the imbalance may possibly escalate into a crisis. Platinum plays pivotal roles in both conventional automobile emissions control and the envisioned hydrogen economy. A platinum crisis would have profound implications on energy and environment. On the one hand, inadequate platinum supply will prevent widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. On the other hand, expensive platinum may enhance the competitiveness of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-powered electric cars. Policymakers should weigh the potential impacts of a platinum crisis in energy policy."
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509000457


Bob Clark
 
T.Neo said:
Depends on how much the mining operation costs to develop and operate, which is a huge variable. Considering that nothing quite like it has ever been done before, odds are it won't be cheap, at least to start with. What is the kind of concentration of something like rhodium or platinum in an asteroid? How much work do you have to do to extract it?
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Yeah, that is huge unknown. Especially since technology to mine and refine mined metals in space don't exist at all. I guess there would be a steep learning curve and many failures before a first succesful prototype asteorid miner is developed. And before asteorid mining could begin they would have to survey multiple asteorids to get an idea what kind of metals and in what concentrations are there which would require multiple space probes.

---------- Post added at 10:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:41 PM ----------

Here is feasibility study about capturing and retrieving small asteorids
http://kiss.caltech.edu/study/asteroid/asteroid_final_report.pdf
 
If this really is a promotion for Avatar 2...

wasn't Avatar 2 going to be a continuation of events on Pandora (well, we don't know what the antagonists would be), and would involve the deep seas of that moon?
 
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Extraordinary claims, very little evidence...

I find it interesting that they propose to start with a set of space telescopes. Considering that there's already a considerable astronomy infrastructure on Earth's surface, perhaps this has a secondary use in building up a technological knowledge base?
 
Ok, now I'm even kind of moved. I'm going to experience a serious attempt at conquering space in my lifetime after all.

Even if they don't succeed (which I don't hope), this will be exciting to watch unfold. The plan sounds reasonable, realistic and mostly motivated by vision, which is I think an absolutely necessary foundation for a venture this ambitious.
Here's to the billionairs that want to do something else with their money than just piling it up! :cheers:
 
Their public announcement is going to be live streamed here in less than two hours.
 
Looks like I better get to ordering that special edition Avatar DVD..

:lol:

The thing with asteroid mining is that, regardless of how much of a positive impact it may have on resupplying Earth resources, asteroid and lunar mining *will* have a massive impact on supplying and fueling a developing space manufacturing and colonization infrastructure. The Catch 22 is, of course, that asteroid (and lunar) mining *requires* a developed space manufacturing infrastructure to be feasible.

It's the old bootstrapping problem. And the traditional way to get around this problem is for somebody to lose his shirt investing massive amounts of money into the first phase to get the infrastructure off the ground (in this case, literally). So even if this is a huge financial disaster for Cameron et al., the groundwork they lay here will give the next generation something to work with.

And it's about damn time.

Post Script: I think I'll order that DVD through Amazon. I'd like to see Bezo's SSTO make it to orbit once.
 
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mostly motivated by vision, which is I think an absolutely necessary foundation for a venture this ambitious.
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I would have to disagree. Spaceflight is a field in which the challenges that you're up against are fairly cut-throat, and you have to approach and defeat them in a cold, calculating manner. Unbridled enthusiasm alone will get you absolutely nowhere- your project will end up with a couple of cool CG images and a website, and then slowly vanish from the global consciousness.

Not that a 'vision' is a totally bad thing; I agree that it's quite a good thing to motivate such a venture, in fact I'd go as far as to say that it's the only way; something so radical is unlikely to be picked up by less 'envisioned' people seeking profit alone.

The Catch 22 is, of course, that asteroid (and lunar) mining *requires* a developed space manufacturing infrastructure to be feasible.
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Depends on how exactly you go about the mining- and the infrastructure.

if it were possible for small companies like Reaction Engines Ltd with their low cost (comparatively) Skylon project to become involved, this would be fantastic for the human endeavour into the heavens.
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Perhaps that's getting a bit ahead of things. If a "human endeavour into the heavens" is a mature Sequoia tree, things like REL or Planetary Resources are seeds barely liberated from their cones. We have no knowledge of whether these ventures will come even close to success, or how they might evolve as time goes on.
 
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