News Kolavia Flight 7K9268 (Airbus A321-231) crashes on Sinai peninsula

I'm going to put money on the following scenario: There was a separation of the tail at the rear pressure bulkhead, causing the nose to drop, overloading the airframe, and the aircraft broke up due to the excessive loads. As the debris scattered, the strange radar data begins to appear, due to the chaotic radar returns.

The first few data points that deviate from the steady-state cruise lines all correlate to this, and the chaotic jumble afterward is simply noise.
 
MaverickSawyer said:
I'm going to put money on the following scenario: There was a separation of the tail at the rear pressure bulkhead, causing the nose to drop, overloading the airframe, and the aircraft broke up due to the excessive loads. As the debris scattered, the strange radar data begins to appear, due to the chaotic radar returns.

The first few data points that deviate from the steady-state cruise lines all correlate to this, and the chaotic jumble afterward is simply noise.
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Not sure if this is really primary radar, since primary radar can't directly measure vertical speed. I would say it is secondary radar.

Also the track already disappears pretty early at high altitude, even if you include the Sinai topography, it should not fall below the radar horizon that early.

And the pattern of the data points suggests it was tracked by three ground stations at that time.
 
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Looking at that, there doesn't appear to be any debris at the main crash site behind where the wings were - would that contribute to the tail separating off hypothesis?

Very sad, wonder what risks the investigation people are having to take being in that area...
 
Since the tail isn't anywhere near the main crash site, that certainly supports it as possibly being the first piece to come off the plane, or certainly having broken off in midair.

But here's something interesting.
 
ISProgram said:
Since the tail isn't anywhere near the main crash site, that certainly supports it as possibly being the first piece to come off the plane, or certainly having broken off in midair.

But here's something interesting.
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Could a bomb rip the back off like that? We still have the ISIS claiming this crash as a terrorist attack.
 
SolarLiner said:
Could a bomb rip the back off like that? We still have the ISIS claiming this crash as a terrorist attack.
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Sure, but it could also be caused by a centre tank explosion. Or by mechanic forces during extreme manoeuvres.
 
SolarLiner said:
Could a bomb rip the back off like that?
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Yeah, it could, if it were placed carefully in just the right spot. Otherwise, it'd have to be a rather large bomb.

Urwumpe said:
Sure, but it could also be caused by a centre tank explosion. Or by mechanic forces during extreme manoeuvres.
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...
Hrm. As a former baggage handler who's worked around A320-family aircraft, I can't say for certain of one of the holds backs up to the wing box. I think both of them do, but I don't know if they are close enough to the center tank for a randomly oriented bomb to reach it. If you had inside help on the ramp, however... Things get a hell of a lot more interesting. A baggage handler could place a particular bag in a particular orientation without any issue, and that would allow a shaped charge or an explosively forged projectile to be aimed with reasonable accuracy.
:shifty:
 
There are now news that the crash could have been caused by a bomb on board of the aircraft, source seems to be the CIA.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/04/africa/russian-plane-crash-egypt-sinai/

The assessment was reached, the official said, by looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a specific threat before the crash. However, the official said, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our attention."
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It's quite strange how everyone was rejecting the possibility of a bomb on a board until yesterday, then it was a short message in media that Egyptian investigator said it was an engine blast, and now several sources simultaneously saying maybe it was a bomb.
 
I get the impression that various Egyptian/Russian officials suspected all along the possibility of terrorism, but a misinformation campaign was attempted to try to deny ISIS the propaganda victory (I'm not judging whether this is appropriate). Seems though like it wasn't coordinated well, which could account for the conflicting (and sometime flat wrong) accounts.

Anyway, this is really sad.
 
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PeterRoss said:
It's quite strange how everyone was rejecting the possibility of a bomb on a board until yesterday, then it was a short message in media that Egyptian investigator said it was an engine blast, and now several sources simultaneously saying maybe it was a bomb.
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Well, it is mostly because before you attribute something to sabotage or terrorism, you should better be sure. If you are wrong that way, you are causing more damage, than if you are wrong in assuming it is not sabotage or terrorism first.

Also the Egyptians have their own motives why they are not interested in having too much terrorism in their own country, for example their strong dependency on tourism.
 
The bomb hypothesis seems to get more support now. There are reports that the CVR has recorded a very loud sound one second before the aircraft broke apart. The aircraft continued to fly on autopilot for that final second.

So, what ever it was, it was not strong enough to destroy the aircraft instantly, but strong enough to cause its structural failure in just about one second.

Still, there are non-bomb and non-terrorist explanations still possible (For example, a few pretty exotic kinds of mechanic failure could also emit a very loud sound without the aircraft failing quickly), so its a bit too early for saying that a terror attack was the cause. But it is gathering more supporting evidence lately, sadly.
 
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Russia is evacuating its tourists from Egypt en masse, not even allowing to take luggage with them - it will be delivered back to Russia with cargo planes later.

It's definitely not a bomb they said.
 
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PeterRoss said:
Russia is evacuating its tourists from Egypt en masse, not even allowing to take luggage with them - it will be delivered back to Russia with cargo planes later.

It's definitely not a bomb they said.
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Well, according to the German investigators, it was also no SAM.

But a Thomson aircraft was nearly hit by an Egyptian Army rocket on August 23.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34754577

Was "artillery practise"... well, must have been a huge artillery rocket, if an airliner pilot can see it approaching... Maybe an Sakr-80, an Egyptian variant of the Russian 9K52 Luna/FROG-7. The Egyptians are also developing a new large artillery rocket right now called RS-120, that should replace the obsolete Luna and Sakr-80 launchers - but that is still in an early phase of development in the last news I have found.
 
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Fraud charges are not strong enough for the self-entitled pieces of human trash that sold these, or perhaps knowingly bought them.

Manslaughter is more appropriate, IMHO.
 
Well, people are judged by the appearance of an act or inaction, not by it's consequences.
Otherwise it would be too much justice too randomly.

Fake bomb detector, eh?
Unfortunately some people would sell plutonium to whoever pays without thinking twice.
 
FSB confirmed it was a bomb. Putin promised to find and punish those who's responsible. Peskov specified that by 'punishment' Putin meant 'elimination'.

Talk about another Middle East crusade...
 
Egypt: Sinai crash probe finds 'no proof of terrorism' - BBC

Egyptian investigators say they have so far found no proof that terrorism caused a Russian jet to crash in the Sinai in October, killing 224 people.
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The head of the Egyptian committee investigating the crash, Ayman al-Muqaddim, was quoted by state TV on Monday as saying there was "no evidence that there is an act of terror or illegal intervention".
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