Meteoroid explosion in Russia

[Andy44]

I heard about this on my way to work this morning and couldn't wait to get home and turn on my computer. I knew there'd be a big fat thread on OF waiting for me, and you guys did not disappoint!

The scary thing about this is that, as Urwumpe pointed out, this thing had apparently swung through perihelion and was coming from the direction of the sun, making it very hard to spot.

This makes you have to stop for a moment and be grateful for the time we have, given that it can all end with an actual bolt from the blue, even though we are now actively looking for such threats and may have some defensive capability within a few years. All it takes is one lucky shot by something not a whole lot bigger in linear dimensions.

 

[Sky Captain]

It would have to explode closer to ground to seriously damage the reactor building and cooling systems. In this case shockwave was only strong enough to break windows and collapse part of a roof of old factory building. I think even Soviet era nuclear plants are built to higher standard than old factory buildings.

 

[Urwumpe]

I think even Soviet era nuclear plants are built to higher standard than old factory buildings.

Chernobyl was not. While the actual reactor really had a strong shielding with multiple layers, the actual building was a very weak factory hall above the reactor, with no protection at all. and many important components had not been protected from damage from outside, but only from possible steam explosions inside the inner reactor casing, which had been expected to mostly leave the reactor building through the weakest spot: The roof.

 

[Quick_Nick]

The Science Channel is having a special on the event ONE day after it occurred. I hope no one is expecting more accuracy than drama.

 

[SiberianTiger]

One astronomer guy gave his estimations in a blog (http://al-pas.livejournal.com/143916.html), based on eyewitnesses' impressions, video recorder footage and other known data.

Source data:
- Light luminosity of the flash was around 300,000 lx at 15 km away from the source
- Some people got tanning on their faces, which is an evidence that 50% of the radiation was UV
- Length of the flash was around 3 s

Based on above, flash energy could be 7.4E12 J

After analysis of the camcorder track http://youtu.be/gQ6Pa5Pv_io, he also suggested that:
- pause between flash and sound is 140 s
- flash evevation above horizon is 30 deg
- assumed shockwave velocity in given conditions could be 300 m/s

=> Explosion happened at 21 km altitude

- Object distance was 42 km
- Angular movement was 20 deg/s

=> speed was 14.7 km/s

- Light luminosity at this ditance no more than 100,000 lx
- Longevity of the flash is 2 s
- 50% was UV light

=> Flash energy is 2,6E13 J

=> at 14.7 km/s it could be a body with mass of 240 tonnes.

Size estimations:
Iron ball would be 4 m across
Stone ball - 6 m
Ice ball - 8 m

The explosion's TNT equivalent is 6 kt

 

[asbjos]

well - regarding my experience with really existing nuclear power plants in the past decades, I would say, they are not right, but also not wrong.

A good well-tended, properly operated nuclear power plant would have no problems. But such nuclear power plants only exist in dreams. Even the best nuclear power plants are compromises between safety and economy. Some critical components are always placed at the wrong point.

if the explosion would have happened low above even a good power plant, it could result in problems maintaining a safe shutdown. Not automatically a Chernobyl. But close enough to worry.

To call it 'luck' that the meteor didn't explode over a nuclear reactor with all the square kilometres available on Earth, I would instead call it 'extremely unlucky' if it actually had exploded over a reactor.

 

[Andy44]

- Some people got tanning on their faces, which is an evidence that 50% of the radiation was UV

Wow. That's some flash. Video cannot convey what that must have been like in person.

 

[Ark]

Thank you, Russian dash cams, for giving us this incredible moment.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

A slight aside - why does it seem that everyone in Russia has a dashboard camera? Just curious.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

I have to admit, I'm really curious to see where this thing came from...
That said, I wonder if the planned asteroid spotting space telescope being designed by the B612 Foundation would have spotted this if the perihelion is as low as we think it may be. Also, how many more of these are there lurking in similar orbits?

 

[Ghostrider]

A slight aside - why does it seem that everyone in Russia has a dashboard camera? Just curious.

Insurance?

 

[Linguofreak]

A slight aside - why does it seem that everyone in Russia has a dashboard camera? Just curious.

From what Artlav has said previously, because the police and courts are shady enough that it's wise to have direct video evidence of what happened in a collision.

 

[Quick_Nick]

In a hypothetical situation of paranoia:
Would a satellite placed somewhere around Sun-Earth L4/L5 or just like 90 degrees ahead/behind of Earth's orbit significantly help detection of these meteoroids coming 'from the sun'?

 

[Scav]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21468116#TWEET604478

One Russian politician said the event was not a meteor shower but a US weapons test, Russia's Interfax news agency reported.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, was quoted as saying: "Meteors are falling. Those are not meteors, it is Americans testing their new weapon."

Just hearing about it now, but . . .

:huh:

 

[Unstung]

Some facts presented neatly:

 

[SiberianTiger]

Strange that there's no mention of Sikhote-Alin event at this infographic.

 

[Eccentrus]

btw, I want to ask, why is it that these kinds of events happen mostly in Russia?

 

[RisingFury]

btw, I want to ask, why is it that these kinds of events happen mostly in Russia?

How do you know they do? Only a small fraction of the Earth's surface is populated. We've no idea how many meteorites have come in over the oceans or polar ice caps, where nobody's ever seen them. On top of that, such events are also rare enough that saying "happen mostly in Russia" will clash with statistical certainty...

 

[Keatah]

In Soviet Russia, space explores you!

 

[Artlav]

Just hearing about it now, but . . .

Don't mind the clown.

btw, I want to ask, why is it that these kinds of events happen mostly in Russia?

First, we are the largest country on the planet, so statistics are on out side.

Second, that's not quite true - there was the Carancas impact, the Whitehorse airburst, the 1972 Great Daylight Fireball in USA, the Reisadalen meteor in Norway, and some airburst over south america in just the recent decades.

A slight aside - why does it seem that everyone in Russia has a dashboard camera? Just curious.

Broken trust.
Police corruption, tendency of rich/connected people to escape responsibility, tendency of witnesses to side with the hooded idiot who ran across the road, and so on.
This creates a gap of mistrust.
While the law is generally quite capable of delivering a lawful verdict, it can only do so in the face of solid evidence - it would take a high level political interference, instead of a petty bribe, to make you guilty if there are videos saying otherwise.