Messierhunter
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Excellent, thanks for the info and link. I'll try that first.You might want to consider GMAT. Its propagator objects look like they will model Earth's gravity non-uniformities better, it can model solar radiation pressure and can use the Jacchia-Roberts model for the upper atmosphere.
Very interesting paper, it also infers some info about the delta-V caused by the explosion, but it naturally takes into account the cumulative venting over a nearly 6 hour period, which would not directly equate to just the initial explosion that sent the panel into deep space. I think AMSO will do for now and I can go back and try to refine it if it doesn't.Regarding AMSO's accuracy, the Moon's position in Orbiter is accurate to within very small amounts so I expect that the trajectory would need to be suitably close to the real thing. This document might also be useful to check it: Apollo 13 Trajectory Reconstruction via State Transition Matrices