Russia 'to save its ISS modules'

[Urwumpe]

The only way they will build another ISS is with the help of China.

Now, who of us is really unrealistic? China will not launch a first station module before 2020 and even if they do, China does not do much else than firsts currently - you don't see them practicing the important things to gain experience in space flight.

Even if they would like to join an ISS2, they would have serious trouble getting their side of the contract done.

 

[Zachstar]

Perhaps I am seriously misinformed but are they not planning on launching a small station within a few years?

 

[Moonwalker]

I suspect you will be right this time, but I also want to add: De-orbit after the successor is in construction. We will get a successor for the ISS, and I hope it's career will start with less troubles.

And I also want to be prophetic again: It will include the USA again, but not again with 70% of the funding.

I think that this is the most likely scenario for the 2020's.

I seriously seriously doubt it.

The only way they will build another ISS is with the help of China. So it is VERY unlikely we will be involved. More than likely building 1 or two smaller stations of our own instead.

I think that the Constellation program will experience the most dramatic cuts, not only money, compared to any other previous manned program of NASA that entered operational status.

There is no money for the AresV and all the lunar landing stuff yet. And I seriously don't see the light at the end of that tunnel at all. The only thing that's left is going to be the Orion vehicles including massive cuts compared to its initial design, and most importantly: a reduced crew capability. It is very likely that the only way to get further funding for manned space flight in future is an ISS replacement. Soyuz as well as Orion will be almost useless and unemployed without a space station in Orbit.

China: their manned space program is not in a good shape. They fly extremely rarely and it is more than unlikely that they'll build a space station until the late 2020's, if at all, build them together with Russia, and less than ever go to the Moon.

These days it is easy to predict that manned space flight is going to continue to happen in LEO. And since the cooperation of NASA, ESA Roscosmos and others works very well, there are good chances for another international station in space.

 

[Zachstar]

Ok from what I am reading there will be several smallish stations launched by a new launcher they are developing before the 2015 timeline and a Mir type station by 2020.

This "Mir" Type station is perfect to cooperate with russia with. Especially if the service module could be maneuvered there.

 

[Urwumpe]

Perhaps I am seriously misinformed but are they not planning on launching a small station within a few years?

What the chinese politicians announce and what China does, is not always the same.

They had been talking about developing a Chinese manned spacecraft for over 10 years, before they even got ahead - that a Chinese CEO bought a Soyuz T reentry capsule in an auction was sure not without impact.

But you can see where China also limited their development that way. The reentry capsule design is directly influenced by Soyuz, the orbital module and the propulsion module are not, and instead pretty full of genuine Chinese hardware. The space suit also has similarities to the Russian suits, but that also shows the Chinese dilemma: They can't expect Russia to give them also the missing parts - they will need to develop the stuff from the beginning. They can use information available in engineering journals and books, but that saves them only little time, Europe had the same conditions when we started developing the optical docking system for the ATV, and still, it took 8 years to be done. And we finally got the Kurs-M system from Russia as Black box component to fill the gaps. China will not get a Kurs-M system from anywhere - the 35 years of development that Russia invested into it will not be available for China.

As much as I like what China does and as much as I see it as motivation to do the same or better with Europe, as much I see that the Chinese way is not the ultimative wisdom, and the sound of the Chinese propaganda speakers louder, than the roar of the technological innovation behind the spacecraft.

Their first EVA looked professional and was a success, but if you looked carefully, you will have seen unprofessional things in the background. They did not even slightly evacuate the orbital module, the hatch opening revealed that it was done at full capsule pressure. There is no reason to explain the useless stress on the spacecraft, unless you assume, the OM was just a minimal and sloppy modification of the first flights, to do the EVA as soon as possible, and without other important goals. Maybe better than Voshkod, but not made for doing it again or even work in space.

And that is all missing. Europe has no own manned spacecraft yet - but we have approximately 50 times more experience with working in space than China, by cooperations with both USA and Russia. And I consider this more important as flags in space. You don't become champion by winning only the first game of the season. You need to win most games and loose only few games.

 

[Andy44]

Their first EVA looked professional and was a success, but if you looked carefully, you will have seen unprofessional things in the background. They did not even slightly evacuate the orbital module, the hatch opening revealed that it was done at full capsule pressure. There is no reason to explain the useless stress on the spacecraft, unless you assume, the OM was just a minimal and sloppy modification of the first flights, to do the EVA as soon as possible, and without other important goals. Maybe better than Voshkod, but not made for doing it again or even work in space.

Interesting. Where did you see all that stuff? I wasn't aware the Chinese government was putting all that out to the press.

 

[Urwumpe]

Interesting. Where did you see all that stuff? I wasn't aware the Chinese government was putting all that out to the press.

Was not necessary. When you watch the original chinese video clip of the EVA, including sound, you will observe three important things:

• The hatch did not open on the first try, but instead was pushed closed by a relative strong force before finally getting opened.
• During the opening of the hatch, the astronaut, who we can assume to be a fighter pilot, maybe even test pilot, moaned like Monica Seles. He sure needed a lot of force.
• Not only you can hear the hissing sound on the voice activated microphone, you can also see how many loose debris parts getting blown through the opening hatch and get accelerated to very high speeds before leaving the vehicle.

This was sure not evacuated, and possibly even higher than the 20% atm pressure you would get if you pre-breathe in pure oxygen.

 

[Moonwalker]

Ok from what I am reading there will be several smallish stations launched by a new launcher they are developing before the 2015 timeline and a Mir type station by 2020.

This "Mir" Type station is perfect to cooperate with russia with. Especially if the service module could be maneuvered there.

Beside a space station, they also intend to fly to the Moon manned past 2020. Even India as well as Africa would like to do such stuff. Who wouldn't.

But the reality looks different for now. China performed only three manned flights within 10 years since Shenzhou lifted off the first time. And they are not going to fly manned this year but also not next year. They fly too rarely which makes their announced long term schedule doubtful. It is unlikely that Roscosmos would cooperate with China. In the best case, well, for China, China would join the international cooperation, which is also doubtful. For now neither Russia nor anybody else is dependent on Chinese manned space flight. And they are not going to be able to support anything else before Orion enteres Orbit and continues US crew transport to the ISS in future, untill ISS gets a replacement.

I don't see yellow stars orbiting the Earth constantly within the next 15 to 20 years.

 

[Yoda]

I'm sorry but what a flippin waste of time and money to spend all these years constructing the ISS only to get about 5-7 functional years out of it.
If you look at what the return versus investment is on this project it is simply pathethic.

All this energy and time would have been well spend focussing our direction toward Mars or a permanent moon based station.

 

[Andy44]

How would a one-shot Mars mission be any more productive than the ISS? I hate to always be so cynical, but the purpose of the ISS is to give NASA and its Russian counterpart something to do. A space shuttle or a Soyuz is no good unless you have someplace to carry your astronauts, so let's build a station. What's the station for? To maintain a "permanent manned presence in space", so the shuttle has someplace to go. That phrase was thrown around alot when I was growing up, I don't know that I've heard it much lately.

Once the ISS is done being built, we need to hurry up and get rid of it so we can ask for another one. Just like as soon as we landed on the Moon we threw away the best launch vehicle ever built and begged for a space shuttle.

And a one-shot mission to Mars would be a jobs program, too, unless you plan on really spashing out and starting a permanent colony, which itself would be hard to justify, even if you buy Carl Sagan's "2-planet species" advice (which I do, actually).

I feel like I'm taking cynical pills.

 

[Suzy]

How would a one-shot Mars mission be any more productive than the ISS? ...

Something else to do (and read about) other than going into LEO - even as a "test mission" around Mars and (hopefully!) back to see if it could be done.

 

[simonpro]

I'm sorry but what a flippin waste of time and money to spend all these years constructing the ISS only to get about 5-7 functional years out of it.
If you look at what the return versus investment is on this project it is simply pathethic.

All this energy and time would have been well spend focussing our direction toward Mars or a permanent moon based station.

Sssh, we can't criticise the wonderful ISS. It's conducting experiments, don't you know.
any second I expect Feynman to pop out of the airlock and shout "SCIENCE!"

The ISS is good for many things, but value for money scientific experimentation isn't one of them, it's pathetic for that.


I would be quite happy if the Russians took over though, the Russians are better at managing such projects than the joint beauracracy we have going on at the moment.

 

[Moonwalker]

as soon as we landed on the Moon we threw away the best launch vehicle ever built and begged for a space shuttle.

That was, at least in my point of view, the biggest mistake NASA probably ever made.

The Apollo Spacecraft was robust and capable to operate in deep space but also perfectly in LEO as well. Skylab also was a great achievement and, at least in my point of view, much more amazing than the ISS, and that already because of its massive interior size but also because of its whole design, just like any Apollo component and launch vehicle (especially the Saturn 1b which to my taste still looks better than any other manned launcher). Skylab and a second bigger Skylab could have been used for what the ISS is used these days.

Today NASA is going to return to the capsule design, the best ever in my point of view just like Souyz (which also is of a great design to my taste). At the moment there are considerations going on that they even would use Ares as a non-reusable launcher if it turns out to be cheaper and to reduce the gap. I would very welcome it. The whole reuseability stuff just is annoying annway.

The last three decades was a waste IMHO. Not from an engineering point of view, but at least a waste of time, and a waste of throwing away a concept that is going to be used once again 4 decades later (with good valid reasons though). I have no problems with space stations as long as crew support is performed by multi-use vehicles that offer the capabiliy for missions into deep space as well. If you modify Soyuz it will be perfect for that, just like Orion is going to be and Apollo was once. The Space Shuttle did indeed prevent anything related to manned missions to the Moon and Mars. It is just empty justification and propaganda that it was a big stepping stone related to the Moon but also Mars. The Apollo hardware was the real big stepping stone for such purposes.

 

[zerofay32]

Not to jack the tread, but there is one thing people always forget. NASA has not, nor ever will have the budget that it had for the Apollo Program. The major flaws in STS stem from the budget cuts during its development and thoughout its opperation. With the cuts NASA could no longer fund the massive Saturn Vs so we would be stuck in LEO anyway. STS was the right choice but because NASA couldn't get the funding that it was promised they had to delete a lot of things from the program. Originaly, a space station would be developed along with the shuttle. But with the cuts, NASA could only have one, with reduced capabilities. My opinion is that even if NASA could, staying with a Skylab type progam wouldn't get us out of LEO any sooner then STS will. STS is a story of what could have been if NASA had the money they were promised. Rant over, Sorry.

Back on topic. I guess they can do whatever they want with their own modules.

 

[Moonwalker]

My opinion is that even if NASA could, staying with a Skylab type progam wouldn't get us out of LEO any sooner then STS will.

The problem is that with STS NASA totally put manned deep space missions out of focus. That wouldn't have been the case with Skylab while the Apollo Spacecraft would have been used further and maybe even a second and larger version later instead of developing the Shuttle. That NASA returns to the Apollo-like Capsule design, and throws away something once again, actually shows the uselessness of STS when something has to happen beyond LEO. Although the Shuttle can do more than a capsule does because of its payload bay, it is actually not a multi-use vehicle. It is just an earth-bound orbital space plane.

I can only hope that NASA successfully gets Orion into orbit, no matter if the ISS gets an extended life time and a replacement later or not. NASA needs something for the future, that can be used for missions to the Moon or Mars as well. STS actually never was something for the future really.

 

[Omhra]

Once the ISS is done being built, we need to hurry up and get rid of it so we can ask for another one. Just like as soon as we landed on the Moon we threw away the best launch vehicle ever built and begged for a space shuttle.

And a one-shot mission to Mars would be a jobs program, too, unless you plan on really spashing out and starting a permanent colony, which itself would be hard to justify, even if you buy Carl Sagan's "2-planet species" advice (which I do, actually).

I feel like I'm taking cynical pills.

Andy44,
No pills required.
You are right on the money.
As awesome as the shuttle is, it is massively inefficient when it comes to delivering payload into space. STS 125 is a clear example of what it is efficient at doing.
To build the station a Saturn rocket would have been optimal... perhaps 3.
What is most important thing is for the public to find a practical value in the program.. and frankly, "Velcro" is getting thin.

zerofay32 is correct, also Simonpro.

The political scape here in USA is not interested on advancement for advancement's sake... in fact they are fighting for making Co2 "not" a pollutant under EPA definitions... ...evolution, etc... watch CSPAN and you can see the "Drift" they are taking.

Other nations are less afraid to have their dogmas being confronted.

Technologically and economically there is no "real" reason we could not have supported heavy lift launchers and ISS... I love to imagine the size of those compartments... only the politics matter...

Find out how long those modules last and heed the warnings of the machine to decommission it at the proper time.
Which humans make it to Mars? I don't care. I just want my species out there, off-planet, surviving and adapting.

 

[SiberianTiger]

The information on Roscosmos having plans to exploit Russian modules separately from the rest of the ISS since 2015 has been officially denied by Roscosmos and RKK Energia's officials.

"We don't have a plan for detaching the Russian segment from the ISS", - told Alexey Krasnov, the primary Roscosmos executive for manned programs during a press conference in TSUP-M last Friday. "Quite oppositely, we are planning to prolong the station's lifetime for as long its technical capabilities allow."

However, he added after that:

"We do not rule out that we will research the possibility of using the ISS modules in the structure of the Low Orbital Research and Assembly Complex, that will enable further development of Russian space programme."