Admiral_Ritt
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Out of 2740, candidate stars, only 1 planet we can call an earth-like has been found. Kepler 62f, 1.4 size of earth. This planet IMO is semi-twin,
and I will make an adjustment at the end for that.
Now Kepler was able to detect the candidate 2740 stars with planets because they had planets that were edge on to us and thus detect
transit of these objects.
1/2740 is the chance of finding a true earth twin which has
the property of being edge on to us so we can see the transit
The number of star of interest in the Kepler field of view is 136,000 stars.
so.
1 ..........x
---- = ------ = 49 or so Earth Twins in the Kepler field
2740 136000
of view. lets halve that and say that there are 26 earth Twins (to hedge
the fact 62f is not a true earth twin, just the most similar to earth one we've found.)
26 earths that's not bad you say. Take a look at the total volume of space
Kepler was viewing. about 10 degress of night sky, from 600 to 3,000 Light
years. This is an enourmous amound of volume.
Using a back of the envelope calculation, assume these systems are in
a linear order from 600 to 3,000 Ly out. that's 2400 ly / 26
or about 92 LY yrs avg dist. you can fudge it up to 100LY taking into account that's it's really a volume measurment.
One caveat, this holds if only 62f is the best earth twin match and no
others confirmed finds are a better match.
But the caveat works the other way. I we were to pick a world to colonize
which was a shirtsleeve and minor respirator enviroment you would have
look harder. A world to colonize besides being the habitable zone
and NOT be tidelocked to it star, and closer in size to the earth is start
but we would need a few more things If we were to settle there.
something close to 24 Hour day (+/- 4hrs), Active Plate techtonics, a star that is nowhere near the end of it's lifetime.
Instead of 100Ly avg, now we are probably talking aobut a matching twin
earth at 200+ Ly.
and I will make an adjustment at the end for that.
Now Kepler was able to detect the candidate 2740 stars with planets because they had planets that were edge on to us and thus detect
transit of these objects.
1/2740 is the chance of finding a true earth twin which has
the property of being edge on to us so we can see the transit
The number of star of interest in the Kepler field of view is 136,000 stars.
so.
1 ..........x
---- = ------ = 49 or so Earth Twins in the Kepler field
2740 136000
of view. lets halve that and say that there are 26 earth Twins (to hedge
the fact 62f is not a true earth twin, just the most similar to earth one we've found.)
26 earths that's not bad you say. Take a look at the total volume of space
Kepler was viewing. about 10 degress of night sky, from 600 to 3,000 Light
years. This is an enourmous amound of volume.
Using a back of the envelope calculation, assume these systems are in
a linear order from 600 to 3,000 Ly out. that's 2400 ly / 26
or about 92 LY yrs avg dist. you can fudge it up to 100LY taking into account that's it's really a volume measurment.
One caveat, this holds if only 62f is the best earth twin match and no
others confirmed finds are a better match.
But the caveat works the other way. I we were to pick a world to colonize
which was a shirtsleeve and minor respirator enviroment you would have
look harder. A world to colonize besides being the habitable zone
and NOT be tidelocked to it star, and closer in size to the earth is start
but we would need a few more things If we were to settle there.
something close to 24 Hour day (+/- 4hrs), Active Plate techtonics, a star that is nowhere near the end of it's lifetime.
Instead of 100Ly avg, now we are probably talking aobut a matching twin
earth at 200+ Ly.
