We're doomed! (again.) Asteroid may hit Earth in 2032

[JonnyBGoode]

"Named 2013 TV135, this giant 1,350-foot-wide minor planet will reach Earth on August 26, 2032. It has a Torino Scale rating of 1, which means that it 'merits careful monitoring.'

"If it hits Earth, it would unleash an energy of 2,500 megatons of TNT—'50 times greater than the biggest nuclear bomb ever detonated.' That's enough to destroy a state like New York and change the climate all around the world."

http://io9.com/astronomers-discover-a-massive-asteroid-that-could-hit-1447068835/1447145949

 

[MattBaker]

I'll just leave that here:

 

[Unstung]

The asteroid currently has a 1 in 63,000 chance of hitting Earth. Yay, sensationalism.

JPL: "Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check"

With only a week of observations for an orbital period that spans almost four years, its future orbital path is still quite uncertain, but this asteroid could be back in Earth's neighborhood in 2032. However, NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office states the probability this asteroid could then impact Earth is only one in 63,000. The object should be easily observable in the coming months and once additional observations are provided to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass., the initial orbit calculations will be improved and the most likely result will be a dramatic reduction, or complete elimination, of any risk of Earth impact.

"To put it another way, that puts the current probability of no impact in 2032 at about 99.998 percent," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "This is a relatively new discovery. With more observations, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce, or rule out entirely, any impact probability for the foreseeable future."
[...]

 

[dacamp66]

to put the odds in context, you probably have a more likely chance to be clobbered by a bus while crossing an EMPTY street.

 

[ky]

We have a better chance of getting hit by an asteroid than winning the lottery. Thats comforting. :lol:

 

[LTrotsky]

We have a better chance of getting hit by an asteroid than winning the lottery. Thats comforting. :lol:

I was going to say the same thing. Lottery sales folks wouldn't like this probability factor known.

 

[orb]

Slate - Bad Astronomy: Good News, Everyone: Asteroid 2013 TV135 No Longer a Threat:

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And that’s exactly what’s happened. The initial 1 in 63,000 chance of impact, calculated using those first few observations, went up as high as 1 in 10,000 after a few more. But now, with well over 600 observations spanning three weeks of time, the chance of an impact has dropped to about 1 in 28 million. In other words, there is a 99.999996% chance it will safely glide on past the Earth in 2032. Once the chance drops like this, it usually stays pretty low. Of course, astronomers will continue to observe this asteroid, because honestly that’s what astronomers do. It's still an interesting object, worth studying.

[UPDATE (Nov. 7, 2013 at 16:00 UTC): I just learned from JPL engineer Ron Baalke that since I wrote this post last night, the chance of an impact has dropped even more, [highlight]to 1 in — get this — 169 million[/highlight]. Ha! That's a 99.9999994% chance of a miss. I'd bet quite a bit of money on a safe pass.]

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