Question Will most launchers be expendable or reusable by 2030?

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mikusingularity
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I see many people talk about Falcon 9 Reusable, and how it will revolutionize the space industry by lowering launch costs to 1/100 of expendables, and how everyone else will have to catch up. But the timeline of Forum Orbiter Italia's add-ons seem to suggest that in the 2030s, all space launches will still be conducted using expendable launch systems. So what's it going to be?
 
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I think most launch vehicles by 2030 will be similar to launch vehicles of today. Many vehicles in service may be variants or developments of vehicles that are flying today, just as many vehicles flying today are variants of vehicles that were flying 20 years ago. In addition, several concepts that are planned to start flying in the coming years, and would likely have a service life extending into the 2030s, are not particularly exceptional technology-wise (Ariane 6, SLS, various Russian and Chinese developments).

What we may see by the 2030s, especially if things like F9R and Skylon change the game somewhat, is a lot of experimentation with reusability. They likely won't be revolutionary developments, but evolutionary developments. We might see stuff like developments of present-day EELV upper stages being lofted by reusable flyback or boost-back stages. So at least, a good portion of future launchers could be partially reusable. Which would be very interesting to see.

But F9R won't suddenly cut the cost to orbit to $100/kg; these are PR values and SpaceX knows it. It may be quite possible one day, but that day lies at the end of a long, rocky road with a considerable risk of failure. We don't even know whether F9R will work, let alone cut costs at all. Here's hoping it does, but if and when it does, it will likely be fairly subtle compared to the "one or two orders of magnitude" claim. IIRC F9R won't even have a reusable upper stage, at first...
 
Technologically, i'd put more faith into things like VentureStar/X-33, a runway-takeoff SSTO.
The biggest problem they had - LH2 tank - have apparently been solved afterwards.
Add to that a few recent or upcoming technological advances, and it might very well be feasible.
At least, it seems more feasible to me than the first stage RTLS of Falcon 9.

Practically, Falcon 9 would likely get high reusability first and set the scene, since SpaceX is actually doing the development, while NASA no longer does.
 
I think people say "$100 a kg" because they also liken expendable rockets to a hypothetical single-use jet airliner. And since air travel with "reusable" planes is relatively cheap...
 
They better be reusable otherwise I don't know what we are doing. The concept of single use vehicles for getting to and from space is a fad that must die as quickly as possible.
 
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