Discussion Will SpaceX target the Moon before NASA?

[RGClark]

Created this thread to open up some healthy space discussion regarding the possibility of a lunar SpaceX mission before the end of the decade, I wanted to hear the possibilities that could play out such as the fiscal possibility and the technical probability.
More and more we have been seeing the rise of commercial spaceflight, and of course most noticeably Elon Musk and SpaceX. With the upcoming Dragon flight out of KSC, the increasing contracts with the Falcon 9 for commercial and now NASA payloads such as the Jason-3 in a few years, we have been seeing SpaceX become more bold and more accomplished and now the Falcon Heavy is in development and target for a flight in 2013 (though realistically this is more likely to take place in mid-2014). This is rather impressive progress for a company that doesn't get billions upon billions of money every fiscal year.
Recently as we all are aware, SpaceX, along with Boeing and SNC won the CCIAP award for funding to develop manned capsules to take to the Space Station. I'm starting to wonder though now that SpaceX has a heavy lift launch vehicle in development, do they have bigger and more medium range plans to go beyond the Space Station, even before NASA does?
An old article, from 2008, says that Musk claimed he could send a circumlunar Dragon to the moon with only 80 million dollars.
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Thanks for that. The Falcon Heavy certainly does have the capability for sending the Dragon on a circumlunar flight. It would indeed be a great demonstration of both the Falcon Heavy and the Dragon capabilities to try this, unmanned, on the first or second test flight.

I mentioned before the possibility that both the Falcon Heavy and the interim 70 mT SLS version could do manned lunar landing missions. But in the case of just the circumlunar missions, they could definitely both accomplish this. Then since NASA is now considering such a circumlunar mission for the 70 mT SLS, a race between NASA and commercial space to accomplish the lunar flyby first could serve as a prelude to the race to the full lander mission.

NASA has the advantage in this in that they could get the funding for at least this orbital return to the Moon. Commercial space has the advantage that the flight could be done much more cheaply. Still, even though they could do it more cheaply, they would still have to raise the funding privately since NASA would not fund this project that would undercut their own mission.

The question would remain how could such a project be privately funded at perhaps a couple hundred million dollar cost?


Bob Clark

 

[Codz]

To me, a circumlunar mission is the most logical short term beyond LEO target for SpaceX if they want to make a statement that they can do everything NASA can for less, even beat them to the moon.

Why would a commercial company do a Lunar mission for nothing? They aren't a public exploration agency such as NASA, they are company that needs to make a profit. Currently, there is no profit in a Lunar trip. People seem to forget that SpaceX is a company, not the private Elon Musk space charity.

Not to mention, NASA already beat them to the Moon around four decades ago...

 

[RGClark]

Why would a commercial company do a Lunar mission for nothing? They aren't a public exploration agency such as NASA, they are company that needs to make a profit. Currently, there is no profit in a Lunar trip. People seem to forget that SpaceX is a company, not the private Elon Musk space charity.
Not to mention, NASA already beat them to the Moon around four decades ago...

One possibility is IF it does turn out the Moon is proven to contain valuable minerals, as at least one company is planning to prospect for.


Bob Clark

 

[Urwumpe]

One possibility is IF it does turn out the Moon is proven to contain valuable minerals as at least one company is planning to prospect for.


Bob Clark

Even if the moon would be full of diamonds, the profits would be very limited in the next decades. It is not even sure, when He3 mining could turn out profitable, despite it really be a resource that is extremely uncommon on Earth.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Even if the moon would be full of diamonds, the profits would be very limited in the next decades. It is not even sure, when He3 mining could turn out profitable, despite it really be a resource that is extremely uncommon on Earth.

Obviously most lunar based business ventures are fairly sketchy right now, but even an unmanned satellite (ie hubble) in lunar orbit could be tremendously effective in asteroid spotting. Paid locating and assesment of mineral rich asteroids could be a boom business if high prices for earth based materials makes asteroid mining a reality

 

[kamaz]

To me, a circumlunar mission is the most logical short term beyond LEO target for SpaceX

Well, it has an advantage of being a relatively simple mission. It basically boils down to correctly executing a TLI maneuver and surviving a 11km/s reentry.

Problem is, such mission has very little market potential. There are no payloads which must be sent on such trip. The only market possible is tourism, except that most people will think that sitting in a can with two other people for a week just to get an hour of seeing the Moon close-up is not worth the price.

Lunar landing is where the potential is, but it has the downside of being much more complicated. Again, landing requires a lunar lander, which Elon does not have. Next, with only a 70t launcher, it requires two launches, one for the lander, and one for the Dragon, insertion of both the Dragon and the lander into LLO (does Dragon have enough Delta-v budget for LLO insertion and departure? If not, how to do that?), rendezvous of the two in LLO, landing, takeoff, and rendezvous in the LLO again.

Plus, interesting stuff on the Moon is in the polar regions, which require more delta-v to reach than the equatorial regions Apollo visited.

Granted, SpaceX's system can be used as a base for a lunar system, but it would require substantial development.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

:hmm: I have been thinking this through, and have some thought-sparking questions:
If a Lunar base is established, why wouldn't SpaceX take a stab at the "taxi" business?
If they team up with another company to develop the lander, why not go for a landing?
food for thought...