Orbiter to model Apophis trajectory?

[MAraujo]

Has anyone tried creating a ship in orbiter that matches the specs of 99942 Apophis to see what happens?

Is orbiter accurate enough to yield meaningful information over decades, or are there just too many factors that orbiter doesn't take into consideration?

I would assume that some of the best solar system models have been employed for this task, since we still can't predict much about the 2036 encounter, I would not assume a small program like orbiter would do much better. It would be fun however to try some different scenarios to see what might happen.

Id love to hear some opinions on this matter.:hmm:

 

[Urwumpe]

Is orbiter accurate enough to yield meaningful information over decades, or are there just too many factors that orbiter doesn't take into consideration?

Short: No. The propagation is accurate, but not so accurate that you could decide anything, especially not if you run in time warp all the time. You need to use better tools for such a task.

 

[MAraujo]

Short: No. The propagation is accurate, but not so accurate that you could decide anything, especially not if you run in time warp all the time. You need to use better tools for such a task.

What about short timescales, say, pick up from the point of the current best estimates for the 2029 encounter (probably more like a couple of points within the error limits)?

How long can you timewarp before before you lose meaningful accuracy?

 

[the.punk]

If the nasa don't know the trajectory so accurate then orbiter can neither tell you it.
The computer that nasa uses are much faster and the programms cost thousends of dollars.

 

[Urwumpe]

How long can you timewarp before before you lose meaningful accuracy?

Try it. Take the current elements from the MPC database and propagate both states one year into the future, once with Orbiter, the other time let ORSA do it at high accuracy. Compare the outputs of both numerically flawed computer programs (Both will not produce accurate results, but ORSA should be about two-three levels of magnitude more accurate in one year). Remember that Orbiter does not model general relativity, while ORSA can do that.

The gravitational keyhole in the 2029 scenario is 800m large. I would dare to say, that Orbiter will be off the more accurate position of ORSA by at least 500m per year.

 

[MAraujo]

Thanks Urwumpe. I like the idea of that little test, Im gonna give it a try...