Discussion Will SpaceX target the Moon before NASA?

[Kyle]

Created this thread to open up some healthy space discussion regarding the possibility of a lunar SpaceX mission before the end of the decade, I wanted to hear the possibilities that could play out such as the fiscal possibility and the technical probability.

More and more we have been seeing the rise of commercial spaceflight, and of course most noticeably Elon Musk and SpaceX. With the upcoming Dragon flight out of KSC, the increasing contracts with the Falcon 9 for commercial and now NASA payloads such as the Jason-3 in a few years, we have been seeing SpaceX become more bold and more accomplished and now the Falcon Heavy is in development and target for a flight in 2013 (though realistically this is more likely to take place in mid-2014). This is rather impressive progress for a company that doesn't get billions upon billions of money every fiscal year.

Recently as we all are aware, SpaceX, along with Boeing and SNC won the CCIAP award for funding to develop manned capsules to take to the Space Station. I'm starting to wonder though now that SpaceX has a heavy lift launch vehicle in development, do they have bigger and more medium range plans to go beyond the Space Station, even before NASA does?
An old article, from 2008, says that Musk claimed he could send a circumlunar Dragon to the moon with only 80 million dollars.

I think that SpaceX could easily, and cost efficiently send a manned Dragon to the moon by several steps.

1) Have a cargo variant of the Dragon launched aboard a Falcon Heavy and sent into a high, elliptical orbit around the Earth and have it re-enter the Earth's atmosphere to test if the Dragon really can withstand a lunar re-entry. While as I have mentioned SpaceX has claimed it could withstand it, on-orbit testing is always a good thing just to make sure.

2) A year later or so, launch another unmanned Dragon aboard a Falcon Heavy. This time, send it around the moon in a Zond style mission and return it safely to Earth.

3) A few months after that, launch a repeat mission but this time, use a manned Dragon in a circumlunar flight in a similar fashion to Zond and Apollo 13.

*Could* it work? It would certainly be a huge, huge boost in at least the American people's eyes for SpaceX if it managed to send a man around the moon in this decade even if there is no landing or no way to even enter orbit. Would NASA allow SpaceX to upstage them? If a private company could send a man to the moon where it takes NASA billions of dollars to end up even with a dummy rocket (Ares I-X) and no results.

Would NASA allow SpaceX to launch Dragons to the moon if SpaceX were footing the bill? I wouldn't think the demand for cargo and crew would be that great that NASA wouldn't allow SpaceX to launch a few Dragons to the moon, especially that Cygnus, CST-100, DreamChaser, and possibly even Liberty's ATK will be launching to the ISS taking up a large portion of the logistics to the space station.

It's time to get bold if we want to go back to the moon by the end of this decade. Also, I noticed that there are other threads for this idea but I wanted to open the possibility of the technical and fiscal feasibility of this idea. That and I value my fellow orbitnaut's opinions

 

[sorindafabico]

If SpaceX were an addon maker, they would need: finish modeling Falcon Heavy, add UMMU to Dragon and model/program a lander.

 

[anemazoso]

What a fun thing to think about!

Unfortunately I think their is no reason to believe that SpaceX would go to the moon, but I do think it is possible technically and might be slightly possible financially.

Technically, and my technical knowledge is limited, I think it is possible because I think the FH has enough Dv to get the Dragon into a free return trajectory. Hopefully our more qualified fellow orbinauts can confirm this. I think it is possible because it wouldn't be very hard to add a little more consumables in lieu of all seven passengers, maybe four or even three. I think those are the only two real show stoppers to figure out. Oh ya..other than the FH flying successfully several times which is still an unknown at this point no matter how much we want to believe it will just happen.

Financially I think it is possible because Space Adventures almost has enough passengers to launch their lunar swing-by with Russian hardware. If the potential customers don't have to help fund hardware (lets assume SpaceX will have the two basic needs in FH and Dragon) then the price could be less. Space Adventures was going to charge $150 Million each with only two paying customers, so $300 Million. SpaceX lists there price for the FH with a GEO payload as $128 Million and the Dragon is said to be about $100 Million, that's $228 million for a launch around the moon. Divided by 3 and that is $76 Million a ticket and by 4 is $57 million a ticket, almost half the price of Space Adventures for 3 passengers and 1/3 for 4. And who knows, SpaceX could choose to invest in the publicity of a Moon Shot and lower the price closer to their costs. Then there is advertising sponsors, which could potentially reduce the cost per ticket by a non-trivial amount. So ya, it could be done.

But there is always the idea to use the Dragon to land on the surface of the moon (or Mars for that matter) with a robotic-science payload, funded by NASA or even other private concerns.

I wanna goooooo!

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Short answer: Yes.
Long answer: Yes, because it will place a further load on the systems than would be present in LEO. This would pave the way for a mission to Mars, which is the long-term goal for Elon Musk.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

If SpaceX were an addon maker, they would need: finish modeling Falcon Heavy, add UMMU to Dragon and model/program a lander.

& then worry about not having collision detection :lol:

Seriously though, 80-100 million dollars for a manned lunar flyby? Thats so cheap Id have to say its erring on the optimistic side, but wow!

Is there a sign up list anywhere :shifty:

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Seriously though, 80-100 million dollars for a manned lunar flyby? Thats so cheap Id have to say its erring on the optimistic side, but wow!

Not really. Mars Direct still maintains that $40 billion over 10 years could get us to Mars. I think that would be a bit steep for a corporation, but if the US and associated industry allies pooled that money, it would happen.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Not really. Mars Direct still maintains that $40 billion over 10 years could get us to Mars. I think that would be a bit steep for a corporation, but if the US and associated industry allies pooled that money, it would happen.

I dont know. Whats say the estimated cost on MSL Curiosity? (total project cost, tracking, launch, insurance, whatever. Do they have to buy insurance for rocket launches?)

 

[MaverickSawyer]

total cost over an approximately 10-12 year program was less than $2 billion, INCLUDING lanch vehicle. Most costs are in personnel these days, if my understanding is correct.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

total cost over an approximately 10-12 year program was less than $2 billion, INCLUDING lanch vehicle. Most costs are in personnel these days, if my understanding is correct.

well true, but an Atlas V doesnt exactly break the bank in terms of cost (not that I have the money for one). I guess my point being that 80-100 M sounds really cheap for:

-Any type of manned mission (space shuttle might be less though)
-A mission outside earth orbit

I guess SpaceX just really knows how to be cost efficient (or think they do)

 

[Kyle]

anemazos, I'm not entirely sure how accurate Glider's Falcon Heavy and Dragon is with Dv and such, but I managed to get the vehicle into a circumlunar trajectory quite easily and got it back. Landed in the middle of China, but got it back nonetheless. So I am willing to bet that the Falcon Heavy could certainly be up to the task of lofting a Dragon to the moon.

 

[Tycho]

At this rate, I think the [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru"]Republic of Nauru[/ame] will target the Moon before NASA.

 

[tl8]

At this rate, I think the Republic of Nauru will target the Moon before NASA.

That is an original solution to asylum seekers.
/me forwards this idea to the ALP and LNP

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Why bother with the incremental steps? Send an unmanned Dragon all the way out to the moon, tag it, and bring it back home. This would be like the COTS 2+3 mission - if something failed they simply would not complete all the mission requirements, but if things work then you could keep proceeding through additional mission milestones. I suppose it would really be like COTS 2+3+...N!, but it is like the all-up concept used by Apollo.

The "only" problem is, who will eventually buy the seats? SpaceX had a 12 flight contract to look forward to with COTS - why would they push for a demonstration flight to the moon without that sort of business incentive?

I would bet Elon would be doing cartwheels if someone put that sort of incentive in front of him giving him a reason to "shoot the moon".

 

[Kyle]

Why bother with the incremental steps? Send an unmanned Dragon all the way out to the moon, tag it, and bring it back home. This would be like the COTS 2+3 mission - if something failed they simply would not complete all the mission requirements, but if things work then you could keep proceeding through additional mission milestones. I suppose it would really be like COTS 2+3+...N!, but it is like the all-up concept used by Apollo.

The "only" problem is, who will eventually buy the seats? SpaceX had a 12 flight contract to look forward to with COTS - why would they push for a demonstration flight to the moon without that sort of business incentive?

I would bet Elon would be doing cartwheels if someone put that sort of incentive in front of him giving him a reason to "shoot the moon".

Always safe to test, test, and test, especially since human life will be at stake.

You could easily combine the first two lunar tests into one, would save a lot of money and accelerate the manned flights.

 

[Screamer7]

Why bother. IMHO NASA and SPACE X are practically in bed with one another.
It really does not make a difference.

 

[N_Molson]

I don't really see the point discussing 4-years old Musk quotes...

Let's see what will happen in the next years ; there is no way to predict future. :crystalball:

I think that 2015-2020 will be a more interesting timeframe concerning spaceflight than 2010-2015, that's all.

 

[Urwumpe]

I think before any promise of Musk should be discussed, remember the comparison: NASA managed to land on the moon in 8 years from its first manned spaceflight. SpaceX has no manned spaceflight yet, not the budget of NASA in these 8 years and its only advantage: SpaceX can use the NASA research and experience of the past decades practically for free.

So, can SpaceX fly to the moon? Yes. Will they fly to the moon. Likely not in the next decades. Will fly SpaceX to the moon before NASA? sure not. NASA has first of all already been there, second, if at all, SpaceX will follow NASA closely to the moon. NASA might do the pioneer work there like always, but SpaceX could only a few years later start doing the routine work for NASA, if SpaceX is willed to take some risks. But I doubt it. SpaceX will more likely become a LEO ferry service, which is still a great service for getting to Moon and Mars, because the better you get things to LEO, the better you can get to the solar system.

 

[kamaz]

SpaceX will likely be able to launch Dragon on a free-return trajectory around the Moon. So the viability of such crewed mission basically boils to whether Dragon (and its crew) could survive a 11km/s reentry.

But, as far as lunar landing goes, SpaceX has no lunar lander, nor has it any plans to develop one.

Besides, SpaceX has never stated that they have any interest in lunar trips. Mars - yes, but Moon - no.

However, Astrobotic is supposed to launch their lunar rover on a SpaceX LV: [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology"]Astrobotic Technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

 

[jedidia]

SpaceX will fly to the moon if they have the technology developed, and if someone pays them for it. They will certainly not do it on their own funding, they're a business, after all.

 

[Kyle]

SpaceX will likely be able to launch Dragon on a free-return trajectory around the Moon. So the viability of such crewed mission basically boils to whether Dragon (and its crew) could survive a 11km/s reentry.

But, as far as lunar landing goes, SpaceX has no lunar lander, nor has it any plans to develop one.

Besides, SpaceX has never stated that they have any interest in lunar trips. Mars - yes, but Moon - no.

However, Astrobotic is supposed to launch their lunar rover on a SpaceX LV: Astrobotic Technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes they have, and it wouldn't shock me once manned missions start going in a few years that SpaceX announces the possibility of a lunar flight.
http://www.space.com/11311-spacex-huge-private-rocket-moon-mars.html

To me, a circumlunar mission is the most logical short term beyond LEO target for SpaceX if they want to make a statement that they can do everything NASA can for less, even beat them to the moon.